BUFFALO/Flashlights: Constraints on the abundance of lensed supergiant stars in the Spock galaxy at redshift 1

We present a constraint on the abundance of supergiant (SG) stars at redshift z approx. 1, based on recent observations of a strongly lensed arc at this redshift. First we derive a free-form model of MACS J0416.1-2403 using data from the BUFFALO program. The new lens model is based on 72 multiply lensed galaxies that produce 214 multiple images, making it the largest sample of spectroscopically confirmed lensed galaxies on this cluster. The larger coverage in BUFFALO allows us to measure the shear up to the outskirts of the cluster, and extend the range of lensing constraints up to ~ 1 Mpc from the central region, providing a mass estimate up to this radius. As an application, we make predictions for the number of high-redshift multiply-lensed galaxies detected in future observations with JWST. Then we focus on a previously known lensed galaxy at z=1.0054, nicknamed Spock, which contains four previously reported transients. We interpret these transients as microcaustic crossings of SG stars and compute the probability of such events. Based on simplifications regarding the stellar evolution, we find that microlensing (by stars in the intracluster medium) of SG stars at z=1.0054 can fully explain these events. The inferred abundance of SG stars is consistent with either (1) a number density of stars with bolometric luminosities beyond the Humphreys-Davidson (HD) limit (L ~ $6\times10^5 L_{\odot}$) that is below 400 stars per sq. kpc, or (2) the absence of stars beyond the HD limit but with a SG number density of ~ 9000 per sq. kpc for stars with luminosities between $10^5$ and $6\times10^5$. This is equivalent to one SG star per 10x10 pc$^2$. We finally make predictions for future observations with JWST's NIRcam. We find that in observations made with the F200W filter that reach 29 mag AB, if cool red SG stars exist at z~1 beyond the HD limit, they should be easily detected in this arc