An integrated assessment framework for exploring resilience to climate extremes and nutrition security in Zambia — Stewart Jennings (2023) | RDL Network
<p>Achieving climate-smart nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa is an urgent challenge due to increasing climate risks to agricultural production, population growth and food price volatility This necessitates an integrated evidence base that takes into account not only future food system modelling but stakeholder knowledge and the plausible and desirable transformations that these information streams can provide. Accordingly, we use the integrated Future Estimator for Emissions and Diets (iFEED) to explore scenarios of food system transformation towards nutrition security in Zambia. iFEED integrates climate, crop and land use modelling to explore scenarios of relevance to the Zambian policy landscape, as informed by stakeholders. Four scenarios were defined by stakeholders, based on the extent of market connectivity and technological development, and the level of climate risk. Analysis of cross-scenario implications shows that diversification of agricultural production away from maize and towards more nutrient-dense foods is necessary to achieve nutrition security by mid-century, and that agricultural areas must expand unless yield improvements are faster than seen historically. These transformative changes could result in increased greenhouse gas emissions, which may be a necessary trade-off given the need to ensure nutrition security. We also present results from further analysis that shows how crop diversification and irrigation – both identified as key policy topic areas for Zambia – can contribute to building resilience in the face of increasing climate extremes. Results show that irrigation can help to reduce the interannual variability of food production by mid-century – and hence improve nutrition security in an increasingly volatile future climate. Crop diversification also helps to build resilience through crop risk-spreading, and also increases average production. Whilst these transformations are challenging to achieve, the alternative for a nutrition-secure future is to rely increasingly on imports, which would be economically and politically challenging given the large import increases required.</p>
Stewart Jennings, Andrew J. Challinor, Pete Smith, Jennie I. Macdiarmid, Edward Pope, Sarah Chapman, Catherine P. Bradshaw, Heather Clark, Sylvia H. Vetter, Nuala Fitton, Richard A. King, Sithembile Mwamakamba, Tshilidzi Madzivhandila, Ian Mashingaidze, Christian Chomba, Masiye Nawiko, Bonani Nyhodo, Ndumiso Mazibuko, Precious Yeki, Pamela Kuwali, Alfred Kambwiri, Vivian Kazi, Agatha Kiama, Abel Songole, Helen Coskeran, Claire H. Quinn, Susannah M. Sallu, Andrew J. Dougill, Stephen Whitfield, Bill Kunin, Nalishebo Meebelo, Andrew Jamali, Dhaquirs Kantande, Prosper Makundi, Winfred Mbungu, Frank Kayula, Sue Walker, Sibongile Zimba, Joseph Hubert Galani Yamdeu, Ndashe Kapulu, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Samuel Eze, Hemant G. Tripathi, Steven M. Sait, Stefan Kepinski, Emmanuel Likoya, Henry Greathead, Harriet Elizabeth Smith, Marcelin Tonye Mahop, Helen Harwatt, Maliha Muzammil, Graham Horgan, Tim G. Benton
Yoselin Benitez‐Alfonso, Beth K Soanes, Sibongile Zimba, Besiana Sinanaj, Liam German, Vinay Sharma, Abhishek Bohra, Anastasia Kolesnikova, Jessica Dunn, Azahara C. Martín, Muhammad Khashi u Rahman, Zaki Saati‐Santamaría, Paula García‐Fraile, Evander Alves Ferreira, Leidivan Almeida Frazão, Wallace A. Cowling, Kadambot Siddique, Manish K. Pandey, Muhammad Farooq, Rajeev K. Varshney, Mark A. Chapman, Christine Boesch, Agata Daszkowska‐Golec, Christine H. Foyer
Max Troell, Rosamond L. Naylor, Marc Métian, M.C.M. Beveridge, Peter Tyedmers, Carl Folke, Kenneth J. Arrow, Scott Barrett, Anne‐Sophie Crépin, Paul R. Ehrlich, Åsa Gren, Nils Kautsky, Simon A. Levin, Karine Nyborg, Henrik Österblom, Stephen Polasky, Marten Scheffer, Brian Walker, Tasos Xepapadeas, Aart de Zeeuw
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