An agent-based model for studying the effects of sustainable intensification on food security in the nation State

Growth in World’s population, the expansion of human activities and the demand for land has and continues to damage the natural environment. Humans depend on the natural environment for essential life-preserving processes, for example food production. Damage to the environment has serious consequences for national (State) and human security and well-being. One concern is food security and, in particular, whether a growing World population will find enough food to eat. The consequences of using more land and resources to grow more food are an important area of research. The expansion of farming will leave less land for other important uses. A proposed solution to this land use problem is sustainable intensification: growing more food on less land with either the same, or a reduced environmental impact. On a purely technical level, sustainable intensification appears to offer a solution to food insecurity and environmental damage. However, the adoption of agricultural technologies such as sustainable intensification is influenced by ‘social forces’ which need to be considered. We are developing a hierarchical model that uses two ‘social forces’ as decision drivers: economics at the landowner level and security at the State level. In our prototype model, State security restricts the economic decisions of landowners. The purpose of the model is to understand the effect sustainable intensification has on land use patterns, when their distribution and quantity depend on State food-security in a global context.