Allowing variance may enlarge the safe operating space for exploited ecosystems

Significance Humans depend on ecosystems for food, water, pharmaceuticals, and other benefits. Ecosystem managers, industries, and the public want these benefits to be predictable and therefore have low variance over time. However, control of variance for short-term benefits leads to long-term fragility. Here we show that management to reduce short-term variability can drive ecosystems into degraded states, leading to long-term declines of ecosystem services. These risks can be avoided by strategies that tolerate variability within boundaries of safe operating spaces for ecosystem management.