A Socio-Technical Framework for Assessing Flash Drought Risks to Key Biodiversity Areas: A Scientists' Warning

Flash droughts, characterized by their rapid onset and intensification, pose significant risks to biodiversity and local populations, with extensive impacts on ecosystems and agriculture. This study presents a comprehensive framework to quantify flash drought risk across Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) in India from 1979 − 2021. By combining hazard, vulnerability, and exposure components, we found that 45.8 % of KBAs fall within the high-risk category, with inland forest areas and national parks showing higher vulnerability than coastal regions. Analysis of 42 freshwater KBAs revealed that 73.8 % face moderate to high risk from flash droughts, while significant correlations were observed between risk index and trends in tree cover loss and wildfire events. The average flash drought duration across KBAs was 34 days, with October being the most frequent onset month (18 %). Our findings indicate that high-risk areas with extensive cropland, such as the Jawaharlal Nehru Bustard Sanctuary (8316 km2), face substantial agricultural vulnerability where flash droughts could lead to rapid crop failure, affecting food security and local livelihoods. The study also revealed that proximity to large water bodies provides some protection against flash droughts, as coastal and marine protected areas mostly showed lower risk levels. These results emphasize the urgent need for targeted conservation strategies and policy reforms to address the challenges posed by flash droughts. Our framework provides a valuable tool for prioritizing conservation efforts and developing resilient ecosystem management plans in the face of increasing climate-related challenges.