Abstract A model of mutation-selection-drift balance incorporating pleiotropic and dominance effects of new mutations on quantitative traits and fitness is investigated and used to predict the amount and nature of genetic variation maintained in segregating populations. The model is based on recent information on the joint distribution of mutant effects on bristle traits and fitness in Drosophila melanogaster from experiments on the accumulation of spontaneous and P element-induced mutations. These experiments suggest a leptokurtic distribution of effects with an intermediate correlation between effects on the trait and fitness. Mutants of large effect tend to be partially recessive while those with smaller effect are on average additive, but apparently with very variable gene action. The model is parameterized with two different sets of information derived from P element insertion and spontaneous mutation data, though the latter are not fully known. They differ in the number of mutations per generation which is assumed to affect the trait. Predictions of the variance maintained for bristle number assuming parameters derived from effects of P element insertions, in which the proportion of mutations with an effect on the trait is small, fit reasonably well with experimental observations. The equilibrium genetic variance is nearly independent of the degree of dominance of new mutations. Heritabilities of between 0.4 and 0.6 are predicted with population sizes from 10(4) to 10(6), and most of the variance for the metric trait in segregating population is due to a small proportion of mutations (about 1% of the total number) with neutral or nearly neutral effects on fitness and intermediate effects on the trait (0.1-0.5 sigma P).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
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