A Guideline for Reliability Prediction in Power Electronic Converters

Reliability prediction in power electronic converters is of paramount importance for converter manufacturers and operators. Conventional approaches employ generic data provided in handbooks for random chance failure probability prediction within useful lifetime. However, the wear-out failures affect the long-term performance of the converters. Therefore, this article proposes a comprehensive approach for estimating the converter reliability within useful lifetime and wear-out period. Moreover, this article proposes a wear-out failure prediction approach based on a structural reliability concept. The proposed approach can quickly predict the converter wear-out behavior unlike conventional Monte Carlo-based techniques. Hence, it facilitates reliability modeling and evaluation in large-scale power electronic-based power systems with huge number of components. The proposed comprehensive failure function over the useful lifetime and wear-out phase can be used for optimal design and manufacturing by identifying the failure prone components and end-of-life prediction. Moreover, the proposed reliability model can be used for optimal decision-making in design, planning, operation, and maintenance of modern power electronic-based power systems. The proposed methodology is exemplified for a photovoltaic inverter by predicting its failure characteristics.