The last decade has been characterized by an increasing demand of higher throughput and more reliable communication links for supporting multimedia applications. To this aim, the focus has been toward both broadband and broadcast solutions providing multimedia services to mobile users. In order to exploit such advanced services, ubiquitous and efficient mobile connections are required: satellite communications (SatCom), able to cover low density populated areas and to fill terrestrial coverage gaps, are a viable solution, as long as capacity is properly optimized. Waveform adaptation can be considered as one of the reference approaches for increasing the throughput and the reliability in wireless communication links. However, the large round trip time and user mobility in SatCom scenarios represent a serious challenge that limits the effectiveness of transmission parameters adaptation. In this paper, we focus on a novel state-driven adaptive coding and modulation approach aiming to predict the most suitable modulation and coding scheme for each communication state, based on channel state estimation and a Markov propagation model. The paper introduces the concept of state estimation decision reliability and transmission reliability. Different from other approaches, the state-driven algorithm allows to increase the system reliability by lowering the outage probability in the selected scenarios. The effectiveness of the proposed approach has been validated by resorting to numerical results after a careful parameter optimization
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