Publications

Neighbourhood selection by natives and immigrants: Homophily or limited spatial search?

Substantial recent influxes of immigrants have transformed metropolitan housing markets across Europe, North America, and Australia. Where and under what physical and sociodemographic conditions these new residents and their children live influence their life chances and societal inequalities and cohesion. Using population register data, we estimate conditional logit models of neighbourhood selections jointly stratified by immigrant and income status for nine types of Oslo region families making 'child-salient,' inter- neighbourhood moves. Although homophily is an important driver of residential selection for both native and non-Western immigrant families, its significance pales in comparison to neighbourhood proximity and sectoral constraints in the spatial patterning of housing search. Study findings enhance our understanding of segregation processes and offer new perspectives on social mix housing policies. Social mix should attempt to enhance diversity at the larger spatial scales primarily by improving information about and enhancing access to potentially desirable residential options and countering anti-immigrant perceptions or discriminatory actions by real estate agents or mortgage brokers.

Fair Housing Enforcement and Changes in Discrimination between 1989 and 2000: An Exploratory Study

Using paired testing data from the 1989 and 2000 Housing DiscriminationStudies (HDS) and data on fair housing enforcement activities during the 1990s inthe corresponding metro areas, we investigate whether 1989-2000 changes in themetropolitan incidence of racial/ethnic discrimination correlate with fair housingenforcement activity during the 1990s. We found that higher amounts of state andlocal enforcement activity supported by HUD through its FHIP and FHAP pro-grams (especially the amount of dollars awarded by the courts) were consistentlyassociated with greater declines in discrimination against black apartment-seekersand home-seekers. The evidence does not support similar conclusions for housingmarket discrimination against Hispanics where the level of enforcement is muchlower.Journal of Economic Literature Classification: J15, K42, L85, R30Keywords: Housing Discrimination, Fair Housing Enforcement, and PairedTestingThe ideas in this paper do not necessarily represent the views of our Uni-versities, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, or any otheragency of the Federal Government. The authors wish to thank the many peopleat the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Urban Institute, FHAssociates, Progressive Management Resources, and Abt Associates who helpedmake the 2000 HousingDiscriminationStudy a success. We also expressgratitudeto Fred Freiberg, Todd Richardson, and Cliff Schrupp for their invaluable assis-tance in obtaining fair housing enforcement data from various sources. Sarah Prattprovided helpful technical assistance regarding the TEAPOTS database. JackieCutsinger and Phyllis Seals at Wayne State University and Jason Cutsinger atCompuware Inc. supplied able research, production, and technical assistance.

Implications of Rising Flood Risk for Residential Real Estate Prices and the Location of Employment

Flood risks are forecast to rise significantly across many parts of Europe, USA, and Asia. As the climate warms, sea levels will continue to rise and the water holding capacity of the atmosphere will increase exponentially. At the same time, the cost of building flood barriers will increase disproportionately with every additional centimetre of height. For many countries, these flood risks will be highly localised, however, and with strong spatial spillovers. This paper uses a unique dataset for 5 boroughs in London to develop a spatial econometric simulation model of the impacts of current and future flood risks on house prices and the location of employment. We consider the broader socio-economic implications of our results.

Status discrepancy as a driver of residential mobility: Evidence from Oslo

Planners have long advocated for “social mix” in neighborhoods without clear evidence that such mixing is stable over time. Indeed, if some groups perceive an intolerable discrepancy between their own economic status and that of their neighbors they may leave the neighborhood, thereby frustrating planners’ goals. We conduct a longitudinal analysis of Oslo household intrametropolitan residential mobility employing a panel model with fixed effects for both households and neighborhoods and interactions for status groups, which provides estimates of plausible causal effects. We theoretically and empirically identify two dimensions of intraneighborhood status discrepancy that prove important predictors of leaving a neighborhood, though impacts differ strongly depending on household income status as defined by Oslo-wide standards. More extreme relative standing above the neighborhood median income promotes exit (especially for low- and middle-status households), suggesting a status signaling motive. For high-status households, being below the median neighborhood income proves influential for out-mobility, suggesting a relative deprivation motive. The overall status composition of the neighborhood is a powerful mobility influence for both low- and high-status households, suggesting a strong preference for homophily. Results imply that policy-generated introduction of low-status households will encourage the exit of high- and, to a lesser degree, middle-status neighbors.

Neighborhoods and Their Role in Creating and Changing Housing

No abstract is provided for this article.

Dynamics of Neighborhood Quality in Chicago: An Analysis of the Interaction among Quality-of-Life Indicators from the New Communities Program Evaluation

Quantifying the Effect of Neighbourhood on Individuals: Challenges, Alternative Approaches, and Promising Directions

Six major challenges confront statistical researchers attempting to quantify accurately the independent effect of neighbourhood context on individuals: (1) defining the scale of neighbourhood; (2) identifying mechanisms of neighbourhood effect; (3) measuring appropriate neighbourhood characteristics; (4) measuring exposure to neighbourhood; (5) measuring appropriate individual characteristics; and (6) endogeneity. The paper describes these challenges, prior attempts to meet them, and their respective shortcomings. It notes several approaches on the horizon that offer the promise of surmounting these challenges: experiments with varied scales of bespoke neighbourhoods; databases with multi-domain measures of neighbourhood characteristics; statistical models testing for non-linear neighbourhood effects that are stratified by residential group, density of local social interactions, and duration of residency; and econometric devices involving instrumental variables and residuals. It argues that further progress can be made on this front if we take advantage of natural quasi-experiments and push toward fielding a major, new social survey employing a people/place panel design. JEL Classifications: B40, R00, C9, C01, C49

Neighbourhood Effects and Social Mobility: A Longitudinal Analysis

What impact do neighbourhoods have on social mobility? For years, this question has received widespread international attention in scholarly debates and within society at large. This paper seeks to contribute to this discussion by presenting the results of an investigation into the relationship between household social mobility and the composition of the residential environment. The analyses are based on an extensive empirical longitudinal study conducted in the Netherlands. The most remarkable conclusion is that, in the Dutch context, the environment has only a modest influence on the social mobility of households with a weak economic position. It was found that the chance of a household living purely on welfare benefits at the beginning of the study period to escape the ‘welfare trap’ was barely dependent on the number of similarly challenged households in the immediate vicinity. Interestingly, the environment proved to have a more powerful effect on the social mobility of households with a stronger economic position. The probability that households with at least one paid job at the beginning of the research would still have a job at the end clearly decreases as the share of benefit-dependent households in the neighbourhood rises. A possible explanation for this is that for the first category (weak starting position) the negative effect of their own welfare situation is far more determinative for their future prospects than the composition of their environment. Because these negative individualistic conditions are absent for the second category (stronger starting position), environmental factors may play a relatively larger role. Another interpretation is that area-based policies are not just targeting the areas with bigger problems more intensively, but especially the long-term unemployed in these areas, and not so much the short-term unemployed (those who had a job at the start of the research period and lost the job afterwards).

Driving Detroit

No abstract is provided for this article.

Questionable effects of antireflective coatings on inefficiently cooled solar cells

A model for temperature effects in p–n junction solar cells is introduced. The temperature of solar cells and the losses in the solar cell junction region caused by elevated temperatures are discussed. The model developed is examined for low-cost silicon solar cells. Plots of output power and efficiency as functions of the time throughout the day are presented. In order to improve the shape of the output power and efficiency curves throughout the day the coherence between technical parameters of the solar cells and the climate in the operation region is observed and examined. It is shown how the drop in output power around noon can be avoided by fitting technical parameters of the solar cells to the climate.

Threshold Effects and Neighborhood Change

In this article, the authors assemble, synthesize, and assess the disparate, fragmented literature concerning thresholds related to neighborhood change. They find several theories of neighborhood change that imply the existence of thresholds and identify six alternative mechanisms for generating threshold effects. They critically examine empirical evidence on changing neighborhood racial group composition, income group composition, social and economic conditions (criminal activity, friendship, teen child-bearing, marriage, educational attainment, employment and earnings, social relationships, health, and welfare dependency), and housing investment. The authors find evidence of threshold effects in dynamics of all these neighborhood attributes. The possibility of identifying thresholds provides guidance to planners for spatially targeting reinvestments to those neighborhoods approaching or past critical thresholds. Future research needs to devise careful empirical tests designed to distinguish the alternative mechanisms producing thresholds and ascertain the generality of findings summarized in this review.

The Maze of urban housing markets: theory, evidence, and policy

This powerful new theoretical approach to analyzing urban housing problems and the policies designed to rectify them will be a vital resource for urban planners, developers, policymakers, and economists. The search for the roots of serious urban housing problems such as homelessness, abandonment, rent burdens, slums, and gentrification has traditionally focused on the poorest sector of the housing market. The findings set forth in this volume show that the roots of such problems lie in the relationships among different parts of the market--not solely within the lower-quality portion--though that is where problems are most dramatically manifested and housing reforms are myopically focused. The authors propose a new understanding of the market structure characterized by a closely interrelated array of quality submarkets. Their comprehensive models ground a unified theory that accounts for demand by both renters and owner occupants, supply by owners of existing dwellings, changes in the stock of housing due to conversions and new construction, and interactions across submarkets.

Metropolitan Population Size and Economic Well-Being

A multi-equation recursive model is specified wherein the level and inequality of income in US metropolitan areas are functions of population, labor force characteristics, industrial structure, and occupational structure. Parameters are estimated for a 1980 sample of 120 standard metropolitan statistical areas representative of all population sizes. These parameters suggest that metropolitan areas of 1.9 million population demonstrate on average the greatest inequality, ceteris paribus. Population proved not to be strongly correlated with per capita income, either directly or indirectly.

The geography of metropolitan opportunity: A reconnaissance and conceptual framework

We present a conceptual framework for metropolitan opportunity and a model of individual decision making about issues affecting youth's future socioeco‐nomic status. Decision making and its geographic context have objective and subjective aspects. Objective spatial variations occur in the metropolitan opportunity structure—social systems, markets, and institutions that aid upward mobility. Decisions are based on the decision‐maker's values, aspirations, preferences, and subjective perceptions of possible outcomes, which are all shaped by the local social network (e.g., kin, neighbors, and friends). We also review the psychological literature on decision making. We hypothesize that the decision‐making method varies with the range of opportunities considered: Those with fewer options adopt a less considered method wherein mistakes and short‐term focus are more likely. Our review also finds empirical evidence that the local social network has an important effect on youth's decisions regarding education, fertility, work, and crime. Policy implications are discussed.

Evolving United States metropolitan land use patterns

We investigate spatial patterns of residential and nonresidential land use for 257 United States metropolitan areas in 1990 and 2000, measured with 14 empirical indices. We find that metropolitan areas became denser during the 1990s but developed in more sprawl-like patterns across all other dimensions, on average. By far, the largest changes in our land use metrics occurred in the realm of employment, which became more prevalent per unit of geographic area, but less spatially concentrated and farther from the historical urban core, on average. Our exploratory factor analyses reveal that four factors summarize land use patterns in both years, and remained relatively stable across the two years: intensity, compactness, mixing, and core-dominance. Mean factor scores vary by metropolitan population, water proximity, type, and Census region. Improved measurement of metropolitan land use patterns can facilitate policy and planning decisions intended to minimize the most egregious aspects of urban sprawl.

Detroit’s bankruptcy: treating the symptom, not the cause

In 2013 Detroit became the largest municipality to declare bankruptcy. Unfortunately, bankruptcy does not treat the long-term cause of Detroit’s financial crisis: the ongoing fiscal death spiral triggered by loss of industrial, commercial and residential tax base starting in the 1950s. The first loss came from manufacturers who abandoned older factories in the city in favor of suburban locations. The second came from the federal government, whose guarantees for FHA-VA mortgages and subsidies for expressway construction spurred suburbanization of Detroit’s (overwhelmingly white) middle class. Detroit trimmed services and raised tax rates in response. But this made it an increasingly uncompetitive location, thereby further contracting its property and income tax bases, forcing still more cuts in services and increases in tax rates. What is required to break out of the fiscal death spiral in which Detroit finds itself is substantially more federal and state revenue sharing and regional growth management.

Criminal Neighbourhoods: Does the Density of Prior Offenders in an Area Encourage others to Commit Crime?

Using crime data over a period of a decade for Glasgow, this paper explores whether the density of prior offenders in a neighbourhoods has an influence on the propensity of others to (re)commence offending. The study shows that the number of ‘newly active’ offenders in a neighbourhood in the current quarter is positively associated with the density of prior offenders for both violent and property crime from the previous two years. In the case of newly active property offenders, the relationship with active prior offenders is apparent only when prior offender counts exceed the median. The paper postulates that intraneighbourhood social mechanisms may be at work to create these effects. The results suggest that policies which concentrate offenders in particular neighbourhoods may increase the number of newly active offenders, and point to evidence of a threshold at which these effects take place.

The Disparate Racial Neighborhood Impacts of Metropolitan Economic Restructuring

The economic restructuring of metropolitan areas has had disparate impacts on neighborhoods populated by minority groups. This chapter examines the impacts of the restructuring of the US economy in the 1980s and 1990s on metropolitan neighborhoods occupied by African Americans and compares this to white communities. It examines the determinants of changing poverty rates, the role played by economic restructuring, the disparate racial neighborhood impacts, and the causes of such impacts. The analysis shows that economic restructuring caused significant increases in poverty rates in black communities relative to predominant white communities.