No abstract is provided for this article.
The authors examine the longitudinal fortunes of the poorest fifth of U.S. metropolitan neighbor-hoods, defined as those with 20% or higher poverty rates in 1980. They employ logistic regression to identify the factors correlated with 1980-1990 increases and decreases in poverty rates across these poor neighborhoods and examine whether factors vary by predominant racial/ethnic composition. Regional economic cycles and population growth performance are the dominant determinants of neighborhood poverty change, although the neighborhood's initial poverty rate also influences it. Neighborhoods with higher poverty rates in 1980 evince less stability. Extremely poor neighborhoods are roughly as likely to experience an increase in poverty of 5 or more percentage points as a comparable decrease in poverty. The authors conclude that continued poverty is not the only or even most likely fate of poor neighborhoods; their fortunes depend on both local and regional context.
This study examines what neighborhood conditions experienced at age 15 and after are associated with teen childbearing and fathering among Latino and African American youth and whether these neighborhood effects vary by gender and/or ethnicity. Administrative and survey data from a natural experiment are used for a sample of 517 Latino and African American youth whose families were quasi-randomly assigned to public housing operated by the Denver (CO) Housing Authority (DHA). Characteristics of the neighborhood initially assigned by DHA to wait list applicants are utilized as identifying instruments for the neighborhood contexts experienced during adolescence. Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) models reveal that neighborhoods having higher percentages of foreign-born residents but lower levels of social capital robustly predict reduced odds of teen parenting though the magnitude of these effects was contingent on gender and ethnicity. Specifically, the presence of foreign-born neighbors on the risk of teen parenting produced a stronger dampening effect for African American youth when compared to Latino youth. Additionally, the effects of social capital on teen parenting were stronger for males than females.
We investigate how childhood housing careers affect young adults’ secondary school and college educational attainments, focusing on the role played by cumulative exposure to homeownership. We analyze Norwegian census and administrative data using extensive controls for youth, household, housing, mobility, and neighborhood characteristics and employ, as a methodological first in this domain, family fixed effects. We find that, compared to an otherwise-comparable sibling experiencing identical residential contexts, a youth who lived one more year in a home owned by their parent(s) had a 1.4 percentage-point higher probability of completing high school by age 21 and a 1.7 percentage-point higher probability of enrolling in college by age 20. These effects arise from homeownership per se, independent of its relationship with dwelling type, mobility, or neighborhood.
Conventional wisdom notwithstanding, the recent spatial redistribution of the urban poor does not necessarily bode well for the future. During the 1990s, the share of metropolitan population living in census tracts with high percentages (more than 40%) of poverty indeed fell significantly, but the shares with 10% to 20% and 20% to 40% poverty rates each rose 1 percentage point. These latter shifts are worrisome because many neighborhoods may have been pushed over their thresholds where poverty concentrations start to create significant external effects for neighbors.
No abstract is provided for this article.
This study estimates the size of the potential US home owner market and examines the relative default risks associated with expanded home ownership among lower-income, 'underserved' households. Using the 1990 SIPP database, a logit model is developed that predicts the likelihood that a renter household will move into home ownership during an 18-month period. Parameters are estimated using a white, suburban renter sub-population. These are then applied to a nationally-representative sample of renter householdsto produce an aggregate,expected number of transitions into home ownership. The difference between this expected number and the actual number of transitions represents the baseline estimate of the number of additional transitions that might be expected were lending practices and conditions prevailing for whites in suburban areas to be applied everywhere else. The relative default risks are assessed of these potential home owners and the renter households who moved into home ownership by applying a well-known default probability equation. The resulting distributions of default probabilities are then compared, using low- and median-priced housing cost assumptions and for several income groups. In the extended phase of the analysis, an estimation is made of various pools of prospective home owners that might be tapped with more aggressive lending policies. These prospective home owners have both a large propensity to make the move into home ownership (relative to those that actually do), and do not present above average default risks were they to do so. The baseline analyses indicate that just over 600 000 (2.1 per cent) more US renter households would become home owners during the period if they could buy low-cost homes and the underwriting practices and opportunitiesfound in white suburban areas were applied uniformly across the nation. If they were limited to purchase of a median-cost home, this figure drops slightly to 522 000 (1.85 per cent). Extended analyses suggest that up to 2.71 million low-to-moderateincome renter households (7.6 per cent of all renter households) should prove more attractive to mortgage lenders than the average first-time home buyer and possess a relatively high probability of moving into home ownership.
:This article reports on the print media advertising practices of a major real estate company operating in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, during 1981–1984. Statistical findings suggest that, compared to home sellers in a white neighborhood listing with this company, those in an integrated or black neighborhood could expect significantly: (1) lower frequencies of advertisements and open houses noted in the Sunday metropolitan newspaper; (2) higher probabilities of no properties in their area being advertised or advertised only with "one-line" ads; and (3) lower probability of their area being described favorably in the ad Potential nonracial explanations of these findings appear invalid. The potential motivations for these practices and their segregative consequences are analyzed
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Flood risks are forecast to rise significantly across many parts of Europe, USA, and Asia. As the climate warms, sea levels will continue to rise and the water holding capacity of the atmosphere will increase exponentially. At the same time, the cost of building flood barriers will increase disproportionately with every additional centimetre of height. For many countries, these flood risks will be highly localised, however, and with strong spatial spillovers. This paper uses a unique dataset for 5 boroughs in London to develop a spatial econometric simulation model of the impacts of current and future flood risks on house prices and the location of employment. We consider the broader socio-economic implications of our results.
No abstract is provided for this article.
Residents, academics, and policy makers frequently believe that certain neighbourhood compositions impact on opportunities of those who are exposed to them. Social outcomes such as those connected to employment, levels of education and income and the risk of becoming involved in illegal activity, are frequently seen as influenced by the neighbourhood one is living in. However, isolating the so-called 'neighbourhood effect' on social outcomes from other impacts on these outcomes is not trivial. In this chapter we address some of the challenges researchers and policy makers are confronted with when getting involved in 'neighbourhood effects' debates. Challenges include conceptual issues related to the types of contexts (residential, work, school) and types of compositions (social or other); questions related to the scales to consider, and how to approach the temporal dimension; issues about what mechanisms would produce the effects; and methodological issues (data types, model choices, sources of bias, detecting thresholds).
We investigate the spatial patterns of land use in a representative sample of 50 large U.S. metropolitan areas in 1990, computing 14 indices measuring both job and housing locations. These indices are reduced to seven independent empirical factors via principal component methods. Sampled areas may be categorized in one of four distinctive groups, based on a cluster analysis of their land use patterns: (1) deconcentrated, dense areas: intensively and continuously developed but without major clusters; (2) leapfrog areas: highly concentrated pockets amid generally low density, discontinuous development; (3) compact, core-dominant areas: development with high proximity to the central nucleus, but only moderate density and continuity; (4) dispersed areas: development extending far from the core without notable concentrations or nuclei. Since none of these types manifest uniformly sprawl-like features on all dimensions of land use, we think it inappropriate to consider sprawl as a syndrome measurable by a unidimensional scale. On the contrary, metropolitan areas manifest spatial patterns evincing four distinctive combinations of sprawl-like dimensions. This implies that anti-sprawl policies must be tailored for the particular patterns extant in the area at hand.
Despite much research on the societal and individual consequences of new digital communication technologies, little attention has been paid to the neighbourhood as a locus of impact. This paper investigates how the growing influence of social media and real estate platforms will likely shape the process of neighbourhood change and the geographic distribution of population and financial resources. The investigation is grounded on a model of neighbourhood dynamics based on flows of households and property investments across metropolitan space, which are guided by imperfect information about housing market opportunities. Decision-makers receive information passively (increasingly through local and non-local social media) and when uncertainty about course of action becomes intolerable they turn to active search (increasingly involving online real estate platforms). Based on this conceptual framing, the article synthesises extant research to draw implications on how the expanding use of these new technologies is affecting neighbourhoods by changing the composition of decision-makers and the information that underpins their decisions. It concludes that digitalisation reduces neighbourhoods residential stability, social capital and diversity, while rendering their dwellings less well-maintained and more expensive.
Springboard or Flypaper? Port-of-Entry Neighbourhood and the Economic Success of Refugees in Sweden
Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Additional informationNotes on contributorsGeorge GalsterGeorge Galster is the Hilberry Professor of Urban Affairs at Wayne State University. His latest book is Driving Detroit: The Quest for Respect in the Motor City (University of Pennsylvania Press, 2014).
