Publications

Targeting risks [Comment on the theory of risk homeostasis: Implications for safety and health]

No abstract is provided for this article.

Affect, Reason, Risk and Rationality

Our understanding of the psychology of human judgment, preference and choice is continually evolving. Behavioral researchers are coming to recognize that there is an aspect of information-processing that has been rather neglected. This is the, experiential, affect-based side of our mental life, which appears every bit as important as the analytic/deliberative side that has been the focus of much prior research and the foundation for multi criteria decision analysis. This essay will briefly describe new research demonstrating the powerful influence of affect on decision-making. Reliance on affect is essential to rational behavior yet it sometimes misleads us. In such circumstances we need to ensure that reason also is employed.

Fearing or fearsome Ebola communication? Keeping the public in the dark about possible post-21-day symptoms and infectiousness could backfire

US quarantine announcements do not include information that there is a moderate likelihood that Ebola-exposed people might exhibit symptoms, signalling infectiousness, beyond 21 days. As a result it is possible that if and when there is media coverage in the US of a delayed-symptom case, it might create citizen distrust in public health authorities and information and cause citizens to overestimate the risk of Ebola infection. In this article we report a research study which examined whether openness about post-21-day symptoms would attenuate negative reactions. We ran two experiments with online opportunity (Amazon mTurk) samples of Americans in late October-early November 2014, between the two deaths from Ebola in the US. In these experiments we assessed the reactions of respondents who saw quantitative estimates of post-21-day-symptom likelihood (n = 1413), or were informed about post-21-day symptoms with a rationale for the 21-day period after all saw a mock news story about a US case of 30th-day symptoms (n = 425). We found in both experiments that perceived risk increased and trust declined when people learned of post-21-day symptoms, and disbelief increased that 21 days without symptoms means no Ebola infection. In Study 2, informed persons and controls changed perceived risk and trust relative to baseline; test-group participants distrusted local medical personnel less and wanted shorter quarantines compared to controls who did not receive the information. Our findings suggest that informing Americans about the small likelihood of post-21-days Ebola symptoms would not increase perceived risk and distrust, and might diminish negative reactions to the media reporting a case who developed symptoms of Ebola after 21 days. Thus, public health officials wanting appropriate public responses to potential or actual epidemics may benefit from early communication of unpleasant infectious-disease facts before events reveal them, and signal officials' lack of preparedness for public reactions.

Whose views really matter in the end?

This chapter explores the bases of risk assessment and demonstrates that judgment of risk is fallible. It also shows that the degree of fallibility is often surprisingly great and that faulty estimates may be put forth with much confidence. For almost 40 years, researchers have been using psychometric methods to elicit quantitative measures of perceived risk, perceived benefits, and acceptable levels of risk from a wide variety of activities, technologies, and natural hazards. This "psychometric paradigm" encompasses a theoretical framework that assumes risk is subjectively defined by individuals and may be informed by a wide array of psychological, social, institutional, and cultural factors. There are emerging networks across communities and even larger scales, and, of course, decision and deliberation processes can matter greatly. The field of risk perception and its communication have been continually plagued by two often entirely unmerited assumptions regarding public attitudes to and acceptance of risks.

Structuring knowledge retrieval: An analysis of decomposed quantitative judgments

Subjects were asked to estimate the answers to 16 questions concerning uncertain quantities like, “How many people are employed by hospitals in the U.S.?” under five different aiding conditions. The most-aided group (Full Algorithm) was given a complete algorithm and asked to make estimates for all the parts of the algorithm and to combine the parts as indicated to arrive at an estimate of the desired quantity. The second group (Partial Algorithm) was given the same algorithm without indications of how to combine the parts. After making estimates of the parts, these subjects then estimated the desired quantity. The third group (List & Estimate) was asked to list components or factors they thought were relevant, make an estimate of each item on their list, and then estimate the desired quantity. The fourth group (List) was asked to make such a list, but they were not asked to make estimates of each item before making an estimate of the desired quantity. The fifth group received no aid. The results generally showed improved performance in terms of both accuracy and consistency across subjects with increasing structure of the aid. Generalization of these results to practical estimation situations is possible but limited by the need, in real situations, for the estimator to develop the algorithm, a task that was done here by the experimenters.

Possession attachment predicts cell phone use while driving.

Distracted driving has become an important public health concern. However, little is known about the predictors of this health-risking behavior. One overlooked risk factor for distracted driving is the perceived attachment that one feels toward his or her phone. Prior research has suggested that individuals develop bonds toward objects, and qualitative research suggests that the bond between young drivers and their phones can be strong. It follows that individuals who perceive a strong attachment to their phone would be more likely to use it, even when driving.In a nationally representative sample of young drivers (17-28 years), participants (n = 1,006) completed a survey about driving behaviors and phone use. Risk perception surrounding cell phone use while driving and perceived attachment to one's phone were assessed by administering factor-analytically derived scales that were created as part of a larger project.Attachment toward one's phone predicted the proportion of trips in which a participant reported using their cell phone while driving, beyond that accounted for by risk perception and overall phone use. Further, attachment predicted self-reported distracted driving behaviors, such as the use of social media while driving.Attachment to one's phone may be an important but overlooked risk factor for the engagement of potentially health-risking driving behaviors. Understanding that phone attachment may adversely affect driving behaviors has the potential to inform prevention and intervention efforts designed to reduce distracted driving behaviors, especially in young drivers.

Facts and Fears: Societal Perception of Risk

No abstract is provided for this article.

Science, Values, and Risk

In the context of health, safety, and environmental decisions, the concept of risk involves value judgments that reflect much more than just the probability and consequences of the occurrence of an event. This article conceptualizes risk as a game, in which the rules must be socially negotiated within the context of a specific problem. This contextualist view of risk provides insight into why technical approaches to risk management often fail with problems such as those involving radiation and chemicals, where scientific experts and the public disagree on the nature of the risks. It also highlights the need for the interested parties to define and play the game, thus emphasizing the importance of institutional, procedural, and societal processes in risk management decisions. This contextualist approach is illustrated using the problem of siting hazardous waste facilities.

Public Responses to High-Level Nuclear Wastes

The public most often responds to the idea of having a high-level nuclear waste (HLNW) facility located near their communities or in their state with fear,

Rating the risks

20 pages

Characterizing Perception of Ecological Risk

Relatively little attention has been paid to the role of human perception and judgment in ecological risk management. This paper attempts to characterize perceived ecological risk, using the psychometric paradigm developed in the domain of human health risk perception. The research began by eliciting a set of scale characteristics and risk items (e.g., technologies, actions, events, beliefs) from focus group participants. Participants in the main study were 68 university students who completed a survey instrument that elicited ratings for each of 65 items on 30 characteristic scales and one scale regarding general risk to natural environments. The results are presented in terms of mean responses over individuals for each scale and item combination. Factor analyses show that five factors characterize the judgment data. These have been termed: impact on species, human benefits, impact on humans, avoidability, and knowledge of impacts. The factor results correspond with initial expectations and provide a plausible characterization of judgments regarding ecological risk. Some comparisons of mean responses for selected individual items are also presented.

Development of a Structural Model to Analyze Public Opinion on a High-Level Radioactive Waste Facility

Studies show that Nevada residents and state officials oppose the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository project at Yucca Mountain. Nevada residents view the Yucca Mountain repository as having extremely high risk; nuclear experts, in contrast, feel the risks are very low. These experts have suggested that public risk perceptions may be reduced by better program management, increased trust in the federal government, and/or by increased benefits and compensation for accepting a repository. The model described in this paper is designed to examine the relationship between risk perception and various strategies for risk management using a confirmatory multivariate method known as covariance structure analysis.

Subjective sensitivity analysis

Previous studies have concluded that when making inferences, people tend to ignore various kinds of normatively important information (e.g., sample size, base rates). The basis for such conclusions has typically been the similarity of responses across groups presented with widely discrepant values of that information. The experiments reported here convert earlier, between-subject designs to within-subject formats. Each subject made several judgments as one kind of information varied across a range of possible values. When information regarding base rates or predictive validity was varied, roughly two-thirds of the subjects changed their judgments in directions dictated by normative considerations, although the magnitudes of these changes were too small. There were no appreciable shifts in response to changes in sample size information. Apparently, people know (or can figure out) somewhat more than what they have been given credit for in the past. Of course, modest sensitivity in these somewhat artificial conditions is not inconsistent with completely ignoring such information when, as is usually the case, the world presents but one set of values.

Risk Perception of Prescription Drugs: Results of a National Survey

Understanding drug risk perceptions is a prerequisite for designing better communication materials for patients and the public and, ultimately, for ensurin

PSYCHOLOGICAL STUDY OF HUMAN JUDGMENT: IMPLICATIONS FOR INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING

No abstract is provided for this article.

Warm glow giving and awareness about those we cannot help

Configural judgments revealed

Relative Importance of Probabilities and Payoffs in Risk Taking

This chapter is concerned with conceptualizing the process by which a person makes decisions about gambles whose probabilities and payoffs are explicitly stated.