Publications

Do ambiguity avoidance and the comparative ignorance hypothesis depend on people’s affective reactions?

Previous work has showed that people are averse to ambiguity and prefer to bet on known probabilities over unknown probabilities. There is also evidence th

Preference reversals: A broader perspective

No abstract is provided for this article.

Rejoinder: the perils of Viscusi's analyses of smoking risk perceptions

Kip Viscusi rejects my critique of his work and restates his view that individuals greatly overestimate the risks from lung cancer and other diseases caused by smoking. But Viscusi's methods are deeply flawed and his analyses, arguments, and conclusions are incorrect. First, he neglects to take into account optimism bias, which leads smokers to believe that they personally are at less risk than other smokers. Second, he fails to demonstrate that smokers appreciate the cumulative nature of smoking risks and the power of addiction that makes it extraordinarily difficult for them to stop smoking when their preferences change and they desire to quit. Third, the quantitative judgments of risk that Viscusi relies upon are so highly determined by methodological biases as to be completely unreliable. A substantial body of evidence supports the conclusion, contrary to Viscusi's, that many young people do not adequately appreciate the risks of smoking. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quantitative Risk Assessment Breeds Fear

No abstract is provided for this article.

Perceptions of Pesticides as Risks to Human Health

This chapter attempts to show the depth and complexity of the public's concerns regarding the risks from pesticides and other chemicals. These concerns transcend national borders and seem to have held remarkably constant for several decades, in spite of views of many toxicologists and other scientists that are quite the opposite from public views. The heavy reliance on testing of chemicals with animals and the quantitative risk assessment that has developed during this same time period may have reinforced and maintained the public's fears of pesticides and other chemicals. Research has also demonstrated that social response to risk is closely related to the position of a hazard within this space. The farther to the right a hazard appears, the higher its perceived risk, the more people want to see its current risks reduced, and the more they want to see strict regulation employed to achieve reduced risk. Risk communication efforts conducted by public relations specialists cannot turn public views around and may, in fact, exacerbate them. Some investigators have taken the limitations of risk science, the difficulty of creating and maintaining trust, and the subjective nature of risk judgments as signs pointing to the need for a radically different approach to dealing with conflicts regarding pesticides and other chemical products.

Aging and decision‐making competence: an analysis of comprehension and consistency skills in older versus younger adults considering health‐plan options

Older adults need to maintain strong decision‐making capabilities as they age. However, we know little about how age‐related physical and psychological changes affect older adults' judgment and decision processes. This paper reports the results of research comparing older versus younger adults' performance on evaluation and choice tasks about health‐plan options. In particular, comprehension and consistency in judgments (across separate versus joint evaluation contexts) were examined. Results indicated that increasing age was related to greater comprehension errors and inconsistent preferences, even when covariates (education, income, gender, self‐perceived skill and health, decision style, and attitude toward delegation) were taken into account. Discussion of the results emphasizes difficulties in interpreting the meaning of age differences in performance on decision tasks and the need for research that ascertains the seriousness of the consequences of age differences in real‐life tasks. The implications for providing decision‐aiding interventions for older adults are highlighted. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cognitive Processes and Societal Risk Taking

Our world is so constructed that the physical and material benefits we most desire are sprinkled with the seeds of disaster. For example, the search for fertile fields often leads us to floodplains, while our attempt to make less fertile fields productive forces us...

Combating Biased Decisionmaking & Promoting Justice & Equal Treatment

This article draws on the behavioral science literature to offer empirically driven policy prescriptions that can reduce the effect of bias and ameliorate unequal treatment in policing, the criminal justice system, employment, and national security.

Lay and Expert Perceptions of Planetary Protection

As space scientists and engineers plan new missions to Mars and other planets in our solar system, they will face critical questions about the potential for biological contamination of planetary surfaces. In a society that places ever-increasing importance on the role of public involvement in science and technology policy, questions about risks of biological contamination will be examined and debated in the media, and will lead to the formation of public perceptions of planetary-contamination risks. These perceptions will, over time, form an important input to the development of space policy. Previous research in public and expert perceptions of technological risks and hazards has shown that many of the problems faced by risk-management organizations are the result of differing perceptions of risk (and risk management) between the general public and scientific and technical experts. These differences manifest themselves both as disagreements about the definition (and level) of risk associated with a scientific, technological or industrial enterprise, and as distrust about the ability of risk-management organizations (both public and private) to adequately protect people's health and safety. This report presents the results of a set of survey studies designed to reveal perceptions of planetary exploration and protection from a wide range of respondents, including both members of the general public and experts in the life sciences. The potential value of this research lies in what it reveals about perceptions of risk and benefit that could improve risk-management policies and practices. For example, efforts to communicate with the public about Mars sample return missions could benefit from an understanding of the specific concerns that nonscientists have about such a mission by suggesting areas of potential improvement in public education and information. Assessment of both public and expert perceptions of risk can also be used to provide an advanced signal of aspects of planetary exploration and protection that may be particularly sensitive or controversial and that could prove problematic from a risk-management standpoint, perhaps warranting a more stringent risk-management approach than would otherwise be the case based on technical considerations alone. The design of the study compares perceptions and attitudes about space exploration relevant to a Mars sample return mission between three respondent groups: (1) members of The Planetary Society, a group representing individuals with a strong interest in space-related issues, (2) a group of university-aged students, representing a population relatively sensitive to environmental hazards, and (3) a group of life scientists outside of the space research community. Members of The Planetary Society received the survey as part of a special issue of The Planetary Report on planetary protection, which contained a number of background articles on planetary protection and related topics. A synopsis of the issue was prepared as an introduction to the survey for the other two groups.

Structured reflection increases intentions to reduce other people’s health risks during COVID-19

People believe they should consider how their behavior might negatively impact other people, Yet their behavior often increases others’ health risks. This creates challenges for managing public health crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. We examined a procedure wherein people reflect on their personal criteria regarding how their behavior impacts others’ health risks. We expected structured reflection to increase people's intentions and decisions to reduce others’ health risks. Structured reflection increases attention to others’ health risks and the correspondence between people's personal criteria and behavioral intentions. In four experiments during COVID-19, people (N = 12,995) reported their personal criteria about how much specific attributes, including the impact on others’ health risks, should influence their behavior. Compared with control conditions, people who engaged in structured reflection reported greater intentions to reduce business capacity (experiment 1) and avoid large social gatherings (experiments 2 and 3). They also donated more to provide vaccines to refugees (experiment 4). These effects emerged across seven countries that varied in collectivism and COVID-19 case rates (experiments 1 and 2). Structured reflection was distinct from instructions to carefully deliberate (experiment 3). Structured reflection increased the correlation between personal criteria and behavioral intentions (experiments 1 and 3). And structured reflection increased donations more among people who scored lower in cognitive reflection compared with those who scored higher in cognitive reflection (experiment 4). These findings suggest that structured reflection can effectively increase behaviors to reduce public health risks.

Investigating the Neural Correlates of the Affect Heuristic Using Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging

This study investigated the neural correlates of the so-called affect heuristic, which refers to the phenomenon whereby individuals tend to rely on affective states rather than rational deliberation of utility and probabilities during judgments of risk and utility of a given event or scenario. The study sought to explore whether there are shared regional activations during both judgments of relative risk and relative benefit of various scenarios, thus being a potential candidate of the affect heuristic. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we developed a novel risk perception task, based on a preexisting behavioral task assessing the affect heuristic. A whole-brain voxel-wise analysis of a sample of participants (n = 42) during the risk and benefit conditions revealed overlapping clusters in the left insula, left inferior frontal gyrus, and left medial frontal gyrus across conditions. Extraction of parameter estimates of these clusters revealed that activity of these regions during both tasks was inversely correlated with a behavioral measure assessing the inclination to use the affect heuristic. More activity in these areas during risk judgments reflect individuals' ability to disregard momentary affective impulses. The insula may be involved in integrating viscero-somatosensory information and forming a representation of the current emotional state of the body, whereas activity in the left inferior frontal gyrus and medial frontal gyrus indicates that executive processes may be involved in inhibiting the impulse of making judgments in favor of deliberate risk evaluations.

Strategies for Reporting Health Plan Performance Information to Consumers: Evidence from Controlled Studies

Objective. To assess whether presentation approaches designed to be more meaningful result in greater weighting of quality information in decisions. An emerging body of research indicates that the way information is presented affects how it is interpreted and how it is weighted in decisions. Comparative health plan performance reports are not being used by consumers possibly because the information presented is difficult to use. The next generation of these reports should be designed to support decision making. Design and Study Participants. The study uses a controlled experimental design. Participants ( n =162) were randomly assigned to different conditions and asked to complete tasks related to using quality information and making health plan selections. Dependent variables included the amount of weight given to quality information in choices and decision accuracy. Results. Some presentation approaches make it easier for users to process and integrate quality data into their choices. However, other presentation formats influence consumers' decisions in ways that undermine their self‐interest. Conclusions. Findings indicate that presenting quality data in a more evaluable format increases the weight it carries in consumer decisions. Every change made in the presentation of comparative data has the potential to influence decisions. Those who disseminate information have a responsibility to be aware of how they use that influence and to direct it in productive and defensible ways. The alternative is to manipulate people in ways that are unknown, are not thought out, or are not defensible, but are no less manipulative.

Acceptable Risk

No abstract is provided for this article.

The Perception of Risk

Decision Processes, Rationality and Adjustment to Natural Hazards * Cognitive Processes and Societal Risk Taking * Preference for Insuring Against Probable Small Losses: Insurance Implications * Accident Probabilities and Seat Belt Usage: A Psychological Perspective * How Safe Is Safe Enough? A Psychometric Study of Attitudes Toward Technological Risks and Benefits * Rating the Risks * Weighing the Risks: Which Risks are Acceptable? * Facts and Fears: Understanding Perceived Risk * Response Mode, Framing and Information-processing Effects in Risk Assessment * The Nature of Technological Hazard * Informing and Educating the Public about Risk * Perception of Risk from Automobile Safety Defects * Perception of Risk * The Social Amplification of Risk: A Conceptual Framework * The Perception and Management of Therapeutic Risk * Perception of Risk from Radiation * Perceived Risk, Trust and the Politics of Nuclear Waste * Intuitive Toxicology: Expert and Lay Judgments of Chemical Risks * Perceived Risk, Trust and Democracy * Adolescent Health-threatening and Health-enhancing Behaviors: A Study of Word Association and Imagery * Technological Stigma * Probability, Danger and Coercion: A Study of Risk Perception and Decision-making in Mental Health Law * Do Adolescent Smokers Know the Risks? * Insensitivity to the Value of a Human Life: A Study of Psychophysical Numbing * Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics and Science: Surveying the Risk-assessment Battlefield * The Affect Heuristic in Judgments of Risks and Benefits*

Affect, Reason, and Decision Making

Decision-Pathway Surveys: A Tool for Resource Managers

This paper introduces an experimental pathways survey technique that builds on insights from behavioral decision theory. The approach presents respondents with a set of linked questions that encourage the deliberate construction of expressed values in the course of selecting a preferred resource-management alternative. By selecting one pathway and avoiding others, important information is revealed about respondents' key trade-offs and about their reasoning processes. A general discussion of the approach is followed by the results of a 1994 survey in Ontario, Canada, of public support for a range of forest vegetation-management alternatives.

When (In)Action Speaks Louder Than Words: Confronting the Collapse of Humanitarian Values in Foreign Policy Decision

No abstract is provided for this article.

Cue utilization in a numerical prediction task.

No abstract is provided for this article.