Lindquist et al. present a strong case for a constructionist account of emotion. First, we elaborate on the ramifications that a constructionist account of emotions might have for psychiatric disorders with emotional disturbances as core elements. Second, we reflect on similarities between Lindquist et al.'s model and recent attempts at formulating psychiatric disorders as networks of causally related symptoms.
Does psi exist? D. J. Bem (2011) conducted 9 studies with over 1,000 participants in an attempt to demonstrate that future events retroactively affect people's responses. Here we discuss several limitations of Bem's experiments on psi; in particular, we show that the data analysis was partly exploratory and that one-sided p values may overstate the statistical evidence against the null hypothesis. We reanalyze Bem's data with a default Bayesian t test and show that the evidence for psi is weak to nonexistent. We argue that in order to convince a skeptical audience of a controversial claim, one needs to conduct strictly confirmatory studies and analyze the results with statistical tests that are conservative rather than liberal. We conclude that Bem's p values do not indicate evidence in favor of precognition; instead, they indicate that experimental psychologists need to change the way they conduct their experiments and analyze their data.
With interest we read the response of Bos and De Jonge (1) to the paper by van de Leemput et al. (2). They argue that our paper (i) rests on illegitimate generalization of group level results to the individual level and (ii) statistically mixes up between-subject and within-subject variability.
The usage of psychological networks that conceptualize psychological behavior as a complex interplay of psychological and other components has gained increasing popularity in various fields of psychology. While prior publications have tackled the topics of estimating and interpreting such networks, little work has been conducted to check how accurate (i.e., prone to sampling variation) networks are estimated, and how stable (i.e., interpretation remains similar with less observations) inferences from the network structure (such as centrality indices) are. In this tutorial paper, we aim to introduce the reader to this field and tackle the problem of accuracy under sampling variation. We first introduce the current state-of-the-art of network estimation. Second, we provide a rationale why researchers should investigate the accuracy of psychological networks. Third, we describe how bootstrap routines can be used to (A) assess the accuracy of estimated network connections, (B) investigate the stability of centrality indices, and (C) test whether network connections and centrality estimates for different variables differ from each other. We introduce two novel statistical methods: for (B) the correlation stability coefficient, and for (C) the bootstrapped difference test for edge-weights and centrality indices. We conducted and present simulation studies to assess the performance of both methods. Finally, we developed the free R-package bootnet that allows for estimating psychological networks in a generalized framework in addition to the proposed bootstrap methods. We showcase bootnet in a tutorial, accompanied by R syntax, in which we analyze a dataset of 359 women with posttraumatic stress disorder available online.
No abstract is provided for this article.
Issues from throughout the book are drawn together in an integrative model of test validation. Evidential requirements for different types of causal claims are
Here we introduce a Special Section of Child Development entitled “Formalizing Theories of Child Development.” This Special Section features five papers that use mathematical models to advance our understanding of central questions in the study of child development. This landmark collection is timely: it signifies growing awareness that rigorous empirical bricks are not enough; we need solid theory to build the house. By stating theory in mathematical terms, formal models make concepts, assumptions, and reasoning more explicit than verbal theory does. This increases falsifiability, promotes cumulative science, and enables integration with mathematical theory in allied disciplines. The Special Section contributions cover a range of topics: the developmental origins of counting, interactions between mathematics and language development, visual exploration and word learning in infancy, referent identification by toddlers, and the emergence of typical and atypical development. All are written in an accessible manner and for a broad audience.
Early warning indicators based on critical slowing down have been suggested as a model-independent and low-cost tool to anticipate the (re)emergence of infectious diseases. We studied whether such indicators could reliably have anticipated the second COVID-19 wave in European countries. Contrary to theoretical predictions, we found that characteristic early warning indicators generally decreased rather than increased prior to the second wave. A model explains this unexpected finding as a result of transient dynamics and the multiple time scales of relaxation during a non-stationary epidemic. Particularly, if an epidemic that seems initially contained after a first wave does not fully settle to its new quasi-equilibrium prior to changing circumstances or conditions that force a second wave, then indicators will show a decreasing rather than an increasing trend as a result of the persistent transient trajectory of the first wave. Our simulations show that this lack of time scale separation was to be expected during the second European epidemic wave of COVID-19. Overall, our results emphasize that the theory of critical slowing down applies only when the external forcing of the system across a critical point is slow relative to the internal system dynamics.
The network approach to psychological phenomena advances our understanding of the interrelations between autism and well-being. We use the Perceived Causal Relations methodology in order to (i) identify perceived causal pathways in the well-being system, (ii) validate networks based on self-report data, and (iii) quantify and integrate clinical expertise in autism research. Trained clinicians served as raters (N=29) completing 374 cause-effects ratings of 34 variables on well-being and symptomatology. A subgroup (N=16) of raters chose intervention targets in the resulting network which we found to match the respective centrality of nodes. Clinicians’ perception of causal relations was similar to the interrelatedness found in self-reported client data (N=323). We present a useful tool for translating clinical expertise into quantitative information enabling future research to integrate this in scientific studies.
Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.Notes1. The resemblance is so obvious that I feel compelled to state that we worked entirely independently of each other; as Newton and Shaw note in their introduction, they only learned about our book after it was published, and the same holds for us.