Land-use change is a direct driver of biodiversity and carbon storage loss. Projections of future land use often include notable expansion of cropland areas in response to changes in climate and food demand, although there are large uncertainties in results between models and scenarios. This study examines these uncertainties by comparing three different socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-3) across three models (IMAGE, GLOBIOM and PLUMv2). It assesses the impacts on biodiversity metrics and direct carbon loss from biomass and soil as a direct consequence of cropland expansion. Results show substantial variation between models and scenarios, with little overlap across all nine projections. Although SSP1 projects the least impact, there are still significant impacts projected. IMAGE and GLOBIOM project the greatest impact across carbon storage and biodiversity metrics due to both extent and location of cropland expansion. Furthermore, for all the biodiversity and carbon metrics used, there is a greater proportion of variance explained by the model used. This demonstrates the importance of improving the accuracy of land-based models. Incorporating effects of land-use change in biodiversity impact assessments would also help better prioritize future protection of biodiverse and carbon-rich areas.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions’.
in this paper we estimate the European potential for carbon mitigation of no-till farming using results from European tillage experiments. Our calculations suggest some potential in terms of (a) reduced agricultural fossil fuel emissions, and (b) increased soil carbon sequestration. We estimate that 100% conversion to no-till farming would be likely to sequester about 23 Tg C y–11 in the European Union or about 43 Tg C y–1 in the wider Europe (excluding the former Soviet Union). In addition, up to 3.2 Tg C y–1 could be saved in agricultural fossil fuel emissions. Compared to estimates of the potential for carbon sequestration of other carbon mitigation options, no-till agriculture shows nearly twice the potential of scenarios whereby soils are amended with organic materials. Our calculations suggest that 100% conversion to no-till agriculture in Europe could mitigate all fossil fuel-carbon emissions from agriculture in Europe. However, this is equivalent to only about 4.1% of total anthropogenic CO2-carbon produced annually in Europe (excluding the former Soviet Union) which in turn is equivalent to about 0.8% of global annual anthropogenic CO2-carbon emissions.For access to the data files, click this link to the CDIAC data transition website: http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/programs/CSEQ/terrestrial/PeteSmithetal98/PeteSmith98.html
Peer reviewed
Abstract. The recent history and current trends in the collection and archiving of forest information and models is reviewed. The question is posed as to whether the community of forest modellers ought to take some action in setting up a Forest Model Archive (FMA) as a means of conserving and sharing the heritage of forest models that have been developed over several decades. The paper discusses the various alternatives of what an FMA could be, and should be. It then goes on to formulate a conceptual model as the basis for the construction of a FMA. Finally the question of software architecture is considered. Again there are a number of possible solutions. We discuss the alternatives, some in considerable detail, but leave the final decisions on these issues to the forest modelling community. This paper has spawned the “Greenwich Initiative ” on the FMA. An internet discussion group on the topic will be started and launched by the “Trafalar Group”, which will span both IUFRO 4.1 and 4.11, and further discussion is planned to take place at the Forest Modelling Conference in