1,298 publications from this institution
Abstract Land‐based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land‐based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing “bottom‐up” sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at the country level. Cost‐effective (available up to $100/tCO 2 eq) land‐based mitigation is 8–13.8 GtCO 2 eq yr −1 between 2020 and 2050, with the bottom end of this range representing the IAM median and the upper end representing the sectoral estimate. The cost‐effective sectoral estimate is about 40% of available technical potential and is in line with achieving a 1.5°C pathway in 2050. Compared to technical potentials, cost‐effective estimates represent a more realistic and actionable target for policy. The cost‐effective potential is approximately 50% from forests and other ecosystems, 35% from agriculture, and 15% from demand‐side measures. The potential varies sixfold across the five regions assessed (0.75–4.8 GtCO2eq yr −1 ) and the top 15 countries account for about 60% of the global potential. Protection of forests and other ecosystems and demand‐side measures present particularly high mitigation efficiency, high provision of co‐benefits, and relatively lower costs. The feasibility assessment suggests that governance, economic investment, and socio‐cultural conditions influence the likelihood that land‐based mitigation potentials are realized. A substantial portion of potential (80%) is in developing countries and LDCs, where feasibility barriers are of greatest concern. Assisting countries to overcome barriers may result in significant quantities of near‐term, low‐cost mitigation while locally achieving important climate adaptation and development benefits. Opportunities among countries vary widely depending on types of land‐based measures available, their potential co‐benefits and risks, and their feasibility. Enhanced investments and country‐specific plans that accommodate this complexity are urgently needed to realize the large global potential from improved land stewardship.
Abstract. Soil organic carbon plays a major role in the global carbon budget, and can act as a source or a sink of atmospheric carbon, whereby it can influence the course of climate change. Changes in soil organic soil stocks (SOCS) are now taken into account in international negotiations regarding climate change. Consequently, developing sampling schemes and models for estimating the spatial distribution of SOCS is a priority. The French soil monitoring network has been established on a 16 km × 16 km grid and the first sampling campaign has recently been completed, providing circa 2200 measurements of stocks of soil organic carbon, obtained through an in situ composite sampling, uniformly distributed over the French territory. We calibrated a boosted regression tree model on the observed stocks, modelling SOCS as a function of other variables such as climatic parameters, vegetation net primary productivity, soil properties and land use. The calibrated model was evaluated through cross-validation and eventually used for estimating SOCS for the whole of metropolitan France. Two other models were calibrated on forest and agricultural soils separately, in order to assess more precisely the influence of pedo-climatic variables on soil organic carbon for such soils. The boosted regression tree model showed good predictive ability, and enabled quantification of relationships between SOCS and pedo-climatic variables (plus their interactions) over the French territory. These relationship strongly depended on the land use, and more specifically differed between forest soils and cultivated soil. The total estimate of SOCS in France was 3.260 ± 0.872 PgC for the first 30 cm. It was compared to another estimate, based on the previously published European soil organic carbon and bulk density maps, of 5.303 PgC. We demonstrate that the present estimate might better represent the actual SOCS distributions of France, and consequently that the previously published approach at the European level greatly overestimates SOCS.