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Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) is unique among the sectors considered in this volume, since the mitigation potential is derived from both an enhancement of removals of greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as reduction of emissions through management of land and livestock (robust evidence; high agreement). The land provides food that feeds the Earth’s human population of ca. 7 billion, fibre for a variety of purposes, livelihoods for billions of people worldwide, and is a critical resource for sustainable development in many regions. Agriculture is frequently central to the livelihoods of many social groups, especially in developing countries where it often accounts for a significant share of production. In addition to food and fibre, the land provides a multitude of ecosystem services; climate change mitigation is just one of many that are vital to human well-being (robust evidence; high agreement). Mitigation options in the AFOLU sector, therefore, need to be assessed, as far as possible, for their potential impact on all other services provided by land. [Section 11.1]
The reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission rates alone appears insufficient to limit the rise in global temperatures. Negative Emission Technologies (NETs) can be helpful in this critical goal by actively removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Industrialised countries like Scotland will require NETs to address their climate targets and reach net-zero carbon emissions in a timely manner. However, the implementation of NETs has varied energy, economic and environmental implications that need to be analysed in detail. In this paper, we explore the potential energy and economic costs for implementation of land-based NETs in Scotland. This analysis is based on the calculated averaged costs of the different technologies and the availability of resources for its implementation in Scotland. We found that the country has a maximum technical potential to abate 90–100% of its annual CO2 emissions by means of land-based NETs, thanks to its low annual emissions and large land area for implementation of NETs. Even in less optimistic scenarios, Scotland is exceptionally well suited for land NETs, which can complement and enhance the potential of more conventional technologies, like renewable energy resources. Our results show that Scotland could lead the transformation towards a carbon-neutral society.
Stream B: Methods in Environmental Modelling including optimization, sensitivity, uncertainty issues, model development and modelling frameworks<br/>Stream B: Methods in Environmental Modelling including optimization, sensitivity, uncertainty issues, model development and modelling frameworks