Forests are a major land use in Europe, and European forest soils contain about the same amount of carbon as is found in tree biomass. Changes in the size of the forest soil carbon pool could have significant impacts on the European carbon budget. We present the first assessment of future changes in European forest soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks using a dedicated process-based SOC model and state-of-the-art databases of driving variables. Soil carbon change was calculated for Europe using the Rothamsted Carbon model using climate data from four climate models, forced by four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios (SRES). Changes in litter input to the soil due to forest management, projected changes in net primary production (NPP), forest age-class structure, and changes in forest area were taken into account. Results are presented for mineral soil only. Under some climate scenarios carbon in forest soils will increase slightly (0.1 to 4.6 Pg) in Europe over the 21st Century, whilst for one scenario, forest SOC stocks are predicted to decrease by 0.3 Pg. Different trends are seen in different regions. Climate change will tend to speed decomposition, whereas increases in litter input due to increasing NPP and changing age-class structure will slow the loss of SOC. Increases in forest area could further enhance the total soil carbon stock of European forests. Whilst climate change will be a key driver of change in forest soil carbon, changes in ageclass structure and land-use change are estimated to have greater effects. Key words: Soil organic carbon, Europe, climate change, forest management, land-use change, Rothamsted Carbon model, EFISCEN model, LPJ model
®(RR) canola to a rotation including triazine tolerant (TT) canola. Within these rotations, use of glyphosate as a knockdown herbicide has been compared with use of Spray.Seed ® . Net returns were found to fall in the longer term in all rotations. Net returns were highest initially but fell more rapidly in the RR rotation where glyphosate was used as a knockdown herbicide. Where Spray.Seed ® was used as a knockdown herbicide in the RR rotation the initial net return was lower, but the rate of fall in net return was reduced.
This article tells the story of Pete, a welfare rights adviser who worked his way up to be Assistant Director of Social Services in a Midlands local authority. Pete joined the public sector with a sense of calling and a belief that local government could create positive social change. Over the next 25 years, however, Pete’s calling was increasingly challenged as his job and the context in which he worked were transformed. This article focuses on the ways in which Pete navigated the system in an attempt to ‘keep the faith’, before eventually taking early retirement.
Healthy soils contribute to a wide range of ecosystem services and virtually all of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, but most of the world's soil resources are in only fair, poor, or very poor condition, and conditions are getting worse in more cases than they are improving. A total of 33% of all soils are moderately to highly degraded as a result of erosion, loss of organic matter, poor nutrient balance, salinization and alkalinization, contamination, acidification, loss of biodiversity, sealing, compaction, and poor water status. Best management practices are available to limit or mitigate threats to soil health, and many of them mitigate multiple soil threats. In many regions of the world, policies or initiatives to protect or enhance the status of soils are in place, and they need to be strengthened and enforced. The Food and Agriculture Organisation will publish its second comprehensive assessment of the status of the world's soils in 2025, and this review provides an interim update on world soil status and offers an accessible overview of the topic.
In 1798, Thomas Robert Malthus published ‘An essay on the principle of population’ in which he concluded that: ‘The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race.’ Over the following century he was criticised for underestimating the potential for scientific and technological innovation to provide positive change. Since then, he has been proved wrong, with a number of papers published during the past few decades pointing out why he has been proved wrong so many times. In the present paper, I briefly review the main changes in food production in the past that have allowed us to continue to meet ever growing demand for food, and I examine the possibility of these same innovations delivering food security in the future. On the basis of recent studies, I conclude that technological innovation can no longer be relied upon to prove Malthus wrong as we strive to feed 9–10 billion people by 2050. Unless we are prepared to accept a wide range of significant, undesirable environmental consequences, technology alone cannot provide food security in 2050. Food demand, particularly the demand for livestock products, will need to be managed if we are to continue to prove Malthus wrong into the future.