The brain is thought to generate internal predictions to optimize behaviour. However, it is unclear whether predictions signalling is an automatic brain function or depends on task demands. Here, we manipulated the spatial/temporal predictability of visual targets, and the relevance of spatial/temporal information provided by auditory cues. We used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to measure participants' brain activity during task performance. Task relevance modulated the influence of predictions on behaviour: spatial/temporal predictability improved spatial/temporal discrimination accuracy, but not vice versa. To explain these effects, we used behavioural responses to estimate subjective predictions under an ideal-observer model. Model-based time-series of predictions and prediction errors (PEs) were associated with dissociable neural responses: predictions correlated with cue-induced beta-band activity in auditory regions and alpha-band activity in visual regions, while stimulus-bound PEs correlated with gamma-band activity in posterior regions. Crucially, task relevance modulated these spectral correlates, suggesting that current goals influence PE and prediction signalling.
This paper summarizes our recent attempts to integrate action and perception within a single optimization framework. We start with a statistical formulation of Helmholtz's ideas about neural energy to furnish a model of perceptual inference and learning that can explain a remarkable range of neurobiological facts. Using constructs from statistical physics it can be shown that the problems of inferring the causes of our sensory inputs and learning regularities in the sensorium can be resolved using exactly the same principles. Furthermore, inference and learning can proceed in a biologically plausible fashion. The ensuing scheme rests on Empirical Bayes and hierarchical models of how sensory information is generated. The use of hierarchical models enables the brain to construct prior expectations in a dynamic and context-sensitive fashion. This scheme provides a principled way to understand many aspects of the brain's organization and responses. We will demonstrate the brain-like dynamics that this scheme entails by using models of birdsongs that are based on chaotic attractors with autonomous dynamics. This provides a nice example of how non-linear dynamics can be exploited by the brain to represent and predict dynamics in the environment.
Abstract This chapter focuses on the use of functional localizers in neuroimaging. It addresses several issues related to the use of localizers, including anatomical specificity, context sensitivity, separate localizer designs, and voxel-based analyses. The chapter provides a discussion on functional regions of interest (fROI) with a comparison between functional selectivity and functional specialization. Information on fROI averaging, intersubject averaging, and the reason for the use of separate functional localizers are provided. The chapter outlines the advantages of fROI responses.
This letter considers a class of biologically plausible cost functions for neural networks, where the same cost function is minimized by both neural activity and plasticity. We show that such cost functions can be cast as a variational bound on model evidence under an implicit generative model. Using generative models based on partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDP), we show that neural activity and plasticity perform Bayesian inference and learning, respectively, by maximizing model evidence. Using mathematical and numerical analyses, we establish the formal equivalence between neural network cost functions and variational free energy under some prior beliefs about latent states that generate inputs. These prior beliefs are determined by particular constants (e.g., thresholds) that define the cost function. This means that the Bayes optimal encoding of latent or hidden states is achieved when the network's implicit priors match the process that generates its inputs. This equivalence is potentially important because it suggests that any hyperparameter of a neural network can itself be optimized-by minimization with respect to variational free energy. Furthermore, it enables one to characterize a neural network formally, in terms of its prior beliefs.
Abstract This report considers three mechanisms that might underlie the course of the secondary peak of coronavirus infections in the United Kingdom. It considers: (i) fluctuations in transmission strength; (ii) seasonal fluctuations in contact rates and (iii) fluctuations in testing. Using dynamic causal modelling, we evaluated the contribution of all combinations of these three mechanisms using Bayesian model comparison. We found overwhelming evidence for the combination of all mechanisms, when explaining 16 types of data. Quantitatively, there was clear evidence for an increase in transmission strength of 57% over the past months (e.g., due to viral mutation), in the context of increased contact rates (e.g., rebound from national lockdowns) and increased test rates (e.g., due to the inclusion of lateral flow tests). Models with fluctuating transmission strength outperformed models with fluctuating contact rates. However, the best model included all three mechanisms suggesting that the resurgence during the second peak can be explained by an increase in effective contact rate that is the product of a rebound of contact rates following a national lockdown and increased transmission risk due to viral mutation.
As an expert reviewer, it is sometimes necessary to ensure a paper is rejected. This can sometimes be achieved by highlighting improper statistical practice. This technical note provides guidance on how to critique the statistical analysis of neuroimaging studies to maximise the chance that the paper will be declined. We will review a series of critiques that can be applied universally to any neuroimaging paper and consider responses to potential rebuttals that reviewers might encounter from authors or editors.
This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time The purpose of this model is to quantify the uncertainty that attends predictions of relevant outcomes By assuming suitable conditional dependencies, one can model the effects of interventions (e g , social distancing) and differences among populations (e g , herd immunity) to predict what might happen in different circumstances Technically, this model leverages state-of-the-art variational (Bayesian) model inversion and comparison procedures, originally developed to characterise the responses of neuronal ensembles to perturbations Here, this modelling is applied to epidemiological populations—to illustrate the kind of inferences that are supported and how the model per se can be optimised given timeseries data Although the purpose of this paper is to describe a modelling protocol, the results illustrate some interesting perspectives on the current pandemic;for example, the nonlinear effects of herd immunity that speak to a self-organised mitigation process