In this paper we consider an approach to neuronal transients that is predicated on the information they contain. This perspective is provided by information theory, in particular the principle of maximum information transfer. It is illustrated here in application to visually evoked neuronal transients. The receptive fields that ensue concur with those observed in the real brain, predicting, almost exactly, functional segregation of the sort seen in the visual system. This information theoretical perspective can be reconciled with a selectionist stance by noting that a high mutual information among neuronal systems and the environment has, itself, adaptive value and will be subject to selective pressure, at any level one cares to consider.
<ns3:p>We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several instantiations of this (epidemic) model to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new cases that may result from loss of immunity—and the exchange of people between regions—and how mortality rates can be ameliorated under different strategic responses. In particular, we consider hard or soft social distancing strategies predicated on national (Federal) or regional (State) estimates of the prevalence of infection in the population. The modelling is demonstrated using timeseries of new cases and deaths from the United States to estimate the parameters of a factorial (compartmental) epidemiological model of each State and, crucially, coupling between States. Using Bayesian model reduction, we identify the effective connectivity between States that best explains the initial phases of the outbreak in the United States. Using the ensuing posterior parameter estimates, we then evaluate the likely outcomes of different policies in terms of mortality, working days lost due to lockdown and demands upon critical care. The provisional results of this modelling suggest that social distancing and loss of immunity are the two key factors that underwrite a return to endemic equilibrium.</ns3:p>
At the inception of human brain mapping, two principles of functional anatomy underwrote most conceptions-and analyses-of distributed brain responses: namely, functional
This technical note describes some Bayesian procedures for the analysis of group studies that use nonlinear models at the first (within-subject) level – e.g., dynamic causal models – and linear models at subsequent (between-subject) levels. Its focus is on using Bayesian model reduction to finesse the inversion of multiple models of a single dataset or a single (hierarchical or empirical Bayes) model of multiple datasets. These applications of Bayesian model reduction allow one to consider parametric random effects and make inferences about group effects very efficiently (in a few seconds). We provide the relatively straightforward theoretical background to these procedures and illustrate their application using a worked example. This example uses a simulated mismatch negativity study of schizophrenia. We illustrate the robustness of Bayesian model reduction to violations of the (commonly used) Laplace assumption in dynamic causal modelling and show how its recursive application can facilitate both classical and Bayesian inference about group differences. Finally, we consider the application of these empirical Bayesian procedures to classification and prediction.
Data assimilation is a fundamental issue that arises across many scales in neuroscience - ranging from the study of single neurons using single electrode recordings to the interaction of thousands of neurons using fMRI. Data assimilation involves inverting a generative model that can not only explain observed data but also generate predictions. Typically, the model is inverted or fitted using conventional tools of (convex) optimization that invariably extremise some functional - norms, minimum descriptive length, variational free energy, etc. Generally, optimisation rests on evaluating the local gradients of the functional to be optimized. In this paper, we compare three different gradient estimation techniques that could be used for extremising any functional in time - (i) finite differences, (ii) forward sensitivities and a method based on (iii) the adjoint of the dynamical system. We demonstrate that the first-order gradients of a dynamical system, linear or non-linear, can be computed most efficiently using the adjoint method. This is particularly true for systems where the number of parameters is greater than the number of states. For such systems, integrating several sensitivity equations - as required with forward sensitivities - proves to be most expensive, while finite-difference approximations have an intermediate efficiency. In the context of neuroimaging, adjoint based inversion of dynamical causal models (DCMs) can, in principle, enable the study of models with large numbers of nodes and parameters.
The free-energy principle (FEP) is a formal model of neuronal processes that is widely recognised in neuroscience as a unifying theory of the brain and biobehaviour. More recently, however, it has been extended beyond the brain to explain the dynamics of living systems, and their unique capacity to avoid decay. The aim of this review is to synthesise these advances with a meta-theoretical ontology of biological systems called variational neuroethology, which integrates the FEP with Tinbergen's four research questions to explain biological systems across spatial and temporal scales. We exemplify this framework by applying it to Homo sapiens, before translating variational neuroethology into a systematic research heuristic that supplies the biological, cognitive, and social sciences with a computationally tractable guide to discovery.