1,987 publications from this institution
Estimating the changes of epidemiological parameters, such as instantaneous reproduction number, R t , is important for understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Current estimates of time-varying epidemiological parameters often face problems such as lagging observations, averaging inference, and improper quantification of uncertainties. To address these problems, we propose a Bayesian data assimilation framework for time-varying parameter estimation. Specifically, this framework is applied to estimate the instantaneous reproduction number R t during emerging epidemics, resulting in the state-of-the-art ‘DARt’ system. With DARt, time misalignment caused by lagging observations is tackled by incorporating observation delays into the joint inference of infections and R t ; the drawback of averaging is overcome by instantaneously updating upon new observations and developing a model selection mechanism that captures abrupt changes; the uncertainty is quantified and reduced by employing Bayesian smoothing. We validate the performance of DARt and demonstrate its power in describing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. The proposed approach provides a promising solution for making accurate and timely estimation for transmission dynamics based on reported data.
In this paper we present a general multivariate approach to the analysis of functional imaging studies. This analysis uses standard multivariate techniques to make statistical inferences about activation effects and to describe the important features of these effects. More specifically, the proposed analysis uses multivariate analysis of covariance (ManCova) with Wilk's lambda to test for specific effects of interest (e.g., differences among activation conditions), and canonical variates analysis (CVA) to characterize differential responses in terms of distributed brain systems. The data are subject to ManCova after transformation using their principal components or eigenimages. After significance of the activation effect has been assessed, underlying changes are described in terms of canonical images. Canonical images are like eigenimages but take explicit account of the effects of error or noise. The generality of this approach is assured by the general linear model used in the ManCova. The design and inferences sought are embodied in the design matrix and can, in principle, accommodate most parametric statistical analyses. This multivariate analysis may provide a statistical approach to PET activation studies that 1) complements univariate approaches like statistical parametric mapping, and 2) may facilitate the extension of existing multivariate techniques, like the scaled subprofile model and eigenimage analysis, to include hypothesis testing and statistical inference. © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
This dataset includes skin conductance response (SCR) measurements for each of 20 healthy unmedicated participants (10 males and 10 females aged 21.8+/-3.3 years) in response to 10 discomforting electric shocks. Stimuli are 0.5ms wide square current pulse repeated at 500Hz for 100ms. Amplitude is varied (mean +/- SD: 0.78mA +/- 0.43mA). ITI is selected randomly on each trial from 29s, 34s or 39s.