Abstract In this work, we address the neuronal encoding problem from a Bayesian perspective. Specifically, we ask whether neuronal responses in an in vitro neuronal network are consistent with ideal Bayesian observer responses under the free energy principle. In brief, we stimulated an in vitro cortical cell culture with stimulus trains that had a known statistical structure. We then asked whether recorded neuronal responses were consistent with variational message passing (i.e., belief propagation) based upon free energy minimisation (i.e., evidence maximisation). Effectively, this required us to solve two problems: first, we had to formulate the Bayes-optimal encoding of the causes or sources of sensory stimulation, and then show that these idealised responses could account for observed electrophysiological responses. We describe a simulation of an optimal neural network (i.e., the ideal Bayesian neural code) and then consider the mapping from idealised in silico responses to recorded in vitro responses. Our objective was to find evidence for functional specialisation and segregation in the in vitro neural network that reproduced in silico learning via free energy minimisation. Finally, we combined the in vitro and in silico results to characterise learning in terms of trajectories in a variational information plane of accuracy and complexity.
Computational ideas pervade many areas of science and have an integrative explanatory role in neuroscience and cognitive science. However, computational depictions of cognitive function have had surprisingly little impact on the way we assess mental illness because diseases of the mind have not been systematically conceptualized in computational terms. Here, we outline goals and nascent efforts in the new field of computational psychiatry, which seeks to characterize mental dysfunction in terms of aberrant computations over multiple scales. We highlight early efforts in this area that employ reinforcement learning and game theoretic frameworks to elucidate decision-making in health and disease. Looking forwards, we emphasize a need for theory development and large-scale computational phenotyping in human subjects.
<ns4:p>We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new cases that may result from loss of immunity—and the exchange of people between regions—and how mortality rates can be ameliorated under different strategic responses. In particular, we consider hard or soft social distancing strategies predicated on national (Federal) or regional (State) estimates of the prevalence of infection in the population. The modelling is demonstrated using timeseries of new cases and deaths from the United States to estimate the parameters of a factorial (compartmental) epidemiological model of each State and, crucially, coupling between States. Using Bayesian model reduction, we identify the effective connectivity between States that best explains the initial phases of the outbreak in the United States. Using the ensuing posterior parameter estimates, we then evaluate the likely outcomes of different policies in terms of mortality, working days lost due to lockdown and demands upon critical care. The provisional results of this modelling suggest that social distancing and loss of immunity are the two key factors that underwrite a return to endemic equilibrium.</ns4:p>
We present a simple method that allows statistical inferences to be made about the significance of regional effects in statistical parametric maps (SPMs) when the approximate location of the effect is specified in advance. The test can be thought of as analogous to assessing activations with uncorrected P values based on the height of SPMs but, in this instance, using the spatial extent or volume of the nearest activated region. The advantage of the current test is that it eschews a correction for multiple comparisons even though the exact location of the expected activation may not be known. Hum. Brain Mapping 5:133–136, 1997. © 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
This paper formulates the action of psychedelics by integrating the free-energy principle and entropic brain hypothesis. We call this formulation relaxed beliefs under psychedelics (REBUS) and the anarchic brain, founded on the principle that—via their entropic effect on spontaneous cortical activity—psychedelics work to relax the precision of high-level priors or beliefs, thereby liberating bottom-up information flow, particularly via intrinsic sources such as the limbic system. We assemble evidence for this model and show how it can explain a broad range of phenomena associated with the psychedelic experience. With regard to their potential therapeutic use, we propose that psychedelics work to relax the precision weighting of pathologically overweighted priors underpinning various expressions of mental illness. We propose that this process entails an increased sensitization of high-level priors to bottom-up signaling (stemming from intrinsic sources), and that this heightened sensitivity enables the potential revision and deweighting of overweighted priors. We end by discussing further implications of the model, such as that psychedelics can bring about the revision of other heavily weighted high-level priors, not directly related to mental health, such as those underlying partisan and/or overly-confident political, religious, and/or philosophical perspectives. <h3>Significance Statement</h3> Psychedelics are capturing interest, with efforts underway to bring psilocybin therapy to marketing authorisation and legal access within a decade, spearheaded by the findings of a series of phase 2 trials. In this climate, a compelling unified model of <i>how</i> psychedelics alter brain function to alter consciousness would have appeal. Towards this end, we have sought to integrate a leading model of global brain function, <i>hierarchical predictive coding</i>, with an often-cited model of the acute action of psychedelics, <i>the entropic brain hypothesis</i>. The resulting synthesis states that psychedelics work to relax high-level priors, sensitising them to liberated bottom-up information flow, which, with the right intention, care provision and context, can help guide and cultivate the revision of entrenched pathological priors.