We used data from a multicentre case-control study conducted in Italy between 1991 and 1994 on over 2500 cases of breast cancer and a comparable number of controls, and estimates of breast cancer incidence in Italy to compute individual breast cancer risk for Italian women. The estimated probabilities between age 50 and 80 ranged from approximately 5% (for a woman with no family history and low modifiable risk profile) to about 30% (for a woman with young family history and high modifiable risk) on the basis of various women's baseline characteristics. Expected numbers of breast cancer cases using the present model were compared with those based on the USA Gail model, and with the observed ones in the comparison group of the Italian Tamoxifen Trial. These show a closer agreement between the observed and the expected total numbers of breast cancers than the USA Gail model. Thus, the Gail model can be improved for use in other populations by using estimates of incidence and risk which are more appropriate to the target population.
Incidence registration and survival data for non-melanocytic skin neoplasms and cutaneous melanoma have been abstracted from the population-based system of the Cancer Registry of the Swiss Canton of Vaud, which has been operating in a particularly favourable environment, since the large majority of cutaneous lesions resected in the area are examined by a pathologist. Among the 5,712 cases registered, 66.7% were basal-cell carcinomas, 20.6% squamous-cell cancers, 9.3% cutaneous melanomas and 3.4% other miscellaneous histological types. The distribution by histological type did not differ appreciably in the 2 sexes, but there were marked inter-sex differences as regards anatomical site. In both sexes, head and neck was by far the commonest localization for non-melanomatous neoplasms (69 to 81% of all incident cases), followed by trunk for basal-cell cancers (18% in males, 15% in females) and upper limb for squamous-cell (10% in males, 17% in females). The distribution of skin melanomas differed considerably between the 2 sexes, by far the commonest site being the trunk for males (45% of cases) and lower limbs for females (40%), followed by head and neck (22% in both sexes). Incidence rates for both basal- and squamous-cell cancers increased with age, and rates were higher in males for each localization except the lower limb. In contrast, incidence for melanoma was higher in females, and incidence rates did not increase with age above 55 years for all sites except head and neck. This can be interpreted in terms of cohort effect, since mortality from melanoma has substantially increased in Switzerland across subsequent birth cohorts. Although this study is essentially descriptive, accurate inspection of these data provides some support for the major aetiological hypotheses of skin carcinogenesis, i.e., the observation that the large majority of basal- and squamous-cell cancers arise on the head and neck confirms the importance of long-term ultraviolet exposure; the relative excess of squamous-cell as compared to basal-cell neoplasms on the upper limb may suggest the role of exposure to other (chemical) carcinogens; and the proportional excess of melanomas on the trunk in males and lower limb in females further indicates that intermittent exposure to sunlight is probably the relevant aetiologic factor for melanocytic skin neoplasms.
High dietary glycaemic index (GI) and glycaemic load (GL) may increase cancer risk. However, limited information was available on GI and/or GL and head and neck cancer (HNC) risk. We conducted a pooled analysis on 8 case-control studies (4081 HNC cases; 7407 controls) from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium. We estimated the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of HNC, and its subsites, from fixed- or mixed-effects logistic models including centre-specific quartiles of GI or GL. GI, but not GL, had a weak positive association with HNC (ORQ4 vs. Q1 = 1.16; 95% CI = 1.02–1.31). In subsites, we found a positive association between GI and laryngeal cancer (ORQ4 vs. Q1 = 1.60; 95% CI = 1.30–1.96) and an inverse association between GL and oropharyngeal cancer (ORQ4 vs. Q1 = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.63–0.97). This pooled analysis indicates a modest positive association between GI and HNC, mainly driven by laryngeal cancer.
Individuals whose energy intake exceeds expenditure are at increased risk of colorectal cancer. To determine whether body-size measurements at different ages were risk factors for cancer of the colon-rectum, we carried out a hospital-based case-control study in 6 Italian areas, 2 of which were in the South. Interviews were conducted with 1,217 subjects of both genders with incident histologically confirmed cancer of the colon, 726 with cancer of the rectum, and 4,136 controls hospitalized for acute, non-neoplastic, non-digestive conditions. The questionnaire included information on sociodemographic factors, and physical activity, a validated dietary history, height, weight at diagnosis and at 12, 30 and 50 years of age and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). After allowance for education, physical activity, energy intake, family history of colorectal cancer and recent change in weight, the body-mass index (BMI) was significantly associated with colorectal-cancer-risk in men (odds ratio, OR, in highest vs. lowest quintile = 1.7; 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.3-2.3), but not in women (corresponding OR = 0.9; 95% CI, 0.7-1.2). Cases of both gender tended to have higher BMI than controls in adolescence, young adulthood and middle age. Height appeared unrelated to risk. In women, but not in men, WHR was positively associated with risk, independently of BMI (OR for > or = 0.90 vs. < or = 0.81 = 1.6; 95% CI; 1.2-2.1). Thus, excessive weight predicts colorectal-cancer risk in men, whereas abdominal obesity (i.e., a high WHR) represents a more reliable risk indicator in women.
The study by Xu et al., reported in this issue of the Archives of Medical Science, is a large original study on breast cancer risk factors in China, a country with low breast cancer incidence [1, 2]. The study shows results from the project of breast cancer prediction (BCPC) in China, aiming to screen breast cancer risk factors among Chinese women and predict individual risk of breast cancer through established risk factors. It is a multicentric hospital-based case-control study, carried out in 14 hospitals in 8 provinces of China, and, from January to July 2008, recruited 416 women aged 30 to 65 years with incident breast cancer and 1156 heal thy women.
