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Incidence and prevalence of hepatocellular carcinoma are likely to remain approximately stable between 2002 and 2007 and slightly decrease in the subsequent quinquennia. These projections are, however, subject to large uncertainties because of the problems in diagnosis and death certification for this neoplasm, particularly for the elderly.
Past analyses of mortality data from mesothelioma relied on unspecific codes, such as pleural neoplasms. We calculated temporal trends in age-specific mortality rates in Canada, the United States, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, the United Kingdom, and Australia on the basis of the 10th version of the International Classification of Diseases, which includes a specific code for mesothelioma. Older age groups showed an increase (in the United States, a weaker decrease) during the study period, whereas in young age groups, there was a decrease (in Poland, a weaker increase, starting, however, from low rates). Results were consistent between men and women and between pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma, although a smaller number of events in women and for peritoneal mesothelioma resulted in less precise results. The results show the heterogeneous effect of the reduction of asbestos exposure on different age groups; decreasing mortality in young people reflects reduced exposure opportunity, and increasing mortality in the elderly shows the long-term effect of early exposures.
Determinants of hip fractures were assessed using data from a network of hospital-based case-control studies from northern Italy. For the present analysis, cases were 209 women with fractures of the hip/proximal femur (aged 29 to 74, median age 62) admitted to a network of teaching and general hospitals in the greater Milan area; controls were 1449 women, aged 25 to 74 (median age 55), admitted for non-traumatic, acute conditions to the same network of hospitals. There was a strong direct association with smoking, the relative risk (RR) being significantly and similarly elevated both in ex- and in current smokers (RR 1.7 and 1.5 respectively) which rose to 2.4 for 25 or over cigarettes per day. The risk was associated with duration of smoking and apparently greater in post-menopausal women. Two factors showed significant inverse associations with hip fractures: relative weight, with relative risks of 0.5, 0.4 and 0.3 in subsequent categories of body mass index as compared with thinner ones, and the use of oestrogen replacement treatment (multivariate RR = 0.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.2-1.1). No association was observed with education or social class, selected indicator foods or alcohol consumption (RR for the highest consumption level = 1.0). The effects of smoking and body mass index appeared independent: compared with never smoking heavier women, the RR for smoking thin women was 4.6. Thus, this case-control study of hip fractures in a predominantly post-menopausal population of Italian women showed a strong association with smoking and appreciable protection from heavier body mass index and the use of oestrogen replacement treatment.
Mortality from cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx, oesphagus, larynx and lung between 1955 and 1989 has been analysed for USA, Canada and 14 countries in Latin America. Among males, Uruguay, Cuba, Argentina and Puerto Rico have the highest rates for all sites, and Peru, Ecuador, Dominican Republic, Mexico and Colombia have the lowest rates. Among females, Cuba, Colombia and Puerto Rico rank high for all sites, and Mexico, Paraguay, Ecuador and Peru rank low. For both sexes, lung cancer mortality rates from the US and Canada are high, whereas rates from other sites are intermediate. An increasing trend in lung cancer mortality over time is shown in all countries except Cuba (no changes), Argentina, Paraguay and Peru (decreasing trend). In Latin America, the tobacco-related lung cancer epidemic is in its early phase among males, and very early phase among females.