Publications

Europe and China Refined Land Cover 2030 (ECRLC2030) was derived from historical landcover observations, natural geographical, location, and socio-economic factors and the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small Regional Extent model (CLUE-S). With a spatial resolution of 60m, landcover under three different scenarios were simulated: the business-as-usual scenario (BAU), the market-liberal scenario (MLS), and the ecological protection scenario (EPS).

This report describes the recent work of the International Cooperative Programme on effects of air pollution on natural vegetation and crops (ICP Vegetation), a research programme conducted in 35 countries in the UNECE region, with outreach activities to other regions. Reporting to the Working Group on Effects of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, the ICP Vegetation is providing information for the review and revision of international protocols to reduce air pollution problems caused by ground-level ozone, heavy metals, nitrogen and persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Progress and recent results from the following activities are reported:  Contributions to revision of the Gothenburg Protocol.  Impacts of ozone on carbon sequestration.  Ozone biomonitoring programme.  European heavy metal and nitrogen in mosses survey 2010/2011, including a pilot study on POPs.  Relationship between i) heavy metals and ii) nitrogen concentrations in mosses and impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

Abstract Loss and fragmentation of natural land cover due to expansion of agricultural areas is a global issue. These changes alter the configuration and composition of the landscape, particularly affecting those ecosystem services (benefits people receive from ecosystems) that depend on interactions between landscape components. Hydrological mitigation describes the bundle of ecosystem services provided by landscape features such as woodland that interrupt the flow of runoff to rivers. These services include sediment retention, nutrient retention and mitigation of overland water flow. The position of woodland in the landscape and the landscape topography are both important for hydrological mitigation. Therefore, it is crucial to consider landscape configuration and flow pathways in a spatially explicit manner when examining the impacts of fragmentation. Here we test the effects of landscape configuration using a large number (>7,000) of virtual landscape configurations. We created virtual landscapes of woodland patches within grassland, superimposed onto real topography and stream networks. Woodland patches were generated with user‐defined combinations of patch number and total woodland area, placed randomly in the landscape. The Ecosystem Service model used hydrological routing to map the “mitigated area” upslope of each woodland patch. We found that more fragmented woodland mitigated a greater proportion of the catchment. Larger woodland area also increased mitigation, however, this increase was nonlinear, with a threshold at 50% coverage, above which there was a decline in service provision. This nonlinearity suggests that the benefit of any additional woodland depends on two factors: the level of fragmentation and the existing area of woodland. Edge density (total edge of patches divided by area of catchment) was the best single metric in predicting mitigated area. Distance from woodland to stream was not a significant predictor of mitigation, suggesting that agri‐environment schemes planting riparian woodland should consider additional controls such as the amount of fragmentation in the landscape. These findings highlight the potential benefits of fragmentation to hydrological mitigation services. However, benefits for hydrological services must be balanced against any negative effects of fragmentation or habitat loss on biodiversity and other services.

The utility of integrated models for informing policy has been criticised due to limited stakeholder engagement, model opaqueness, inadequate transparency in assumptions, lack of model flexibility and lack of communication of uncertainty that, together, lead to a lack of trust in model outputs. We address these criticisms by presenting the ERAMMP Integrated Modelling Platform (IMP), developed to support the design of new "business-critical" policies focused on agriculture, land-use and natural resource management. We demonstrate how the long-term (>5 years), iterative, two-way and continuously evolving participatory process led to the co-creation of the IMP with government, building trust and understanding in a complex integrated model. This is supported by a customisable modelling framework that is sufficiently flexible to adapt to changing policy needs in near real-time. We discuss how these attributes have facilitated cultural change within the Welsh Government where the IMP is being actively used to explore, test and iterate policy ideas prior to final policy design and implementation.

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is a significant threat to semi-natural habitats and species in the UK, resulting in on-going erosion of habitat quality and declines in many species of high conservation value. The project focused on impacts and remedies for designated conservation sites, especially Natura 2000 sites protected under the EU Habitats Directive. However, the approach and certainly the measures could be equally applied to other areas of high conservation value. Evidence was drawn together to develop a framework for identifying key N threats at individual sites as a basis to target mitigation options in the context of potential legislative, voluntary and financial instruments.