In this Viewpoint, Ioannidis discusses the status of nutritional epidemiologic research and posits that radical reform is needed in the field, including how nutritional research is conducted and reported.
<title>Abstract</title> Background: Until recently a typical rule that has often been often used for the endorsement of new medications by the Food and Drug Administration has been the existence of at least two statistically significant clinical trials favoring the new medication. This rule has consequences for the true positive (endorsement of an effective treatment) and false positive (endorsement of an ineffective treatment) rates. Methods: In this paper, we compare true positive and false positive rates for different evaluation criteria through simulations that rely on (1) conventional p -values; (2) confidence intervals based on meta-analyses assuming fixed or random effects; and (3) Bayes factors. We varied threshold levels for statistical evidence, and thresholds for what constitutes a clinically meaningful treatment effect. Results: Our results show that Bayes factors, meta-analytic confidence intervals, and p-values often have similar performance. Bayes factors may perform better when trials have small sample sizes and clinically meaningful effects are not small, particularly in fields where the number of non-zero effects is relatively large. Conclusions: Thinking about realistic effect sizes in conjunction with desirable levels of statistical evidence, as well as quantifying statistical evidence with Bayes factors may help improve decision-making in some circumstances.
A causal association of air pollution with mental diseases is an intriguing possibility raised in a Short Report just published in PLOS Biology. Despite analyses involving large data sets, the available evidence has substantial shortcomings, and a long series of potential biases may invalidate the observed associations. Only bipolar disorder shows consistent results, with similar effects across United States and Denmark data sets, but the effect has modest magnitude, appropriate temporality is not fully secured, and biological gradient, plausibility, coherence, and analogy offer weak support. The signal seems to persist in some robustness analyses, but more analyses by multiple investigators, including contrarians, are necessary. Broader public sharing of data sets would also enhance transparency.
Although modest effects of V Leiden mutation on the risk of hypertension in pregnancy cannot be excluded, the association observed in early and small studies may be typical of bias, in particular time-lag bias and publication bias.
We hypothesized that B-cell epitope mapping of DNA Topoisomerase I (type-I topoisomerase, or Topo I) may define epitopes strongly associated with pulmonary interstitial fibrosis (PIF) in systemic sclerosis (SSc). B-cell epitope mapping of Topo I was performed using 63 20-mer peptides overlapping by eight residues and spanning the entire length of the Topo I sequence. These peptides, coupled to polystyrene pins, were tested for antibody binding by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) using immunoglobulin G fractions from anti-Topo I, anticentromere, anti-U3RNP-positive, and normal sera. Four major epitopes were recognized by anti-Topo I sera, but not from the control sera: WWEEERYPEGIKWKFLEHKG (205-224, epitope I), RIANFKIEPPGLFRGRGNHP (349-368, epitope II), PGHKWKEVRHDNKVTWLVSW (397-416, epitope III), and ELDGQEYVVEFDFLGKDSIR (517-536, epitope IV). Peptide-epitopes were then synthesized in their soluble forms and ELISA systems were developed. Epitopes II to IV are localized at highly exposed sites of the Topo I tertiary structure, whereas epitope I is localized at a less accessible site. In a cohort of 81 patients with SSc with clinical data on the evolution of their disease, patients with antibodies in their sera recognizing at least three of the four epitopes had 3.1 times (P = 0.02) the hazard of developing PIF compared with patients whose sera recognized no epitopes or only one or two of the four epitopes. The discrimination was much stronger than that achieved by the simple determination of Topo I antibodies by counterimmunoelectrophoresis and immunoblot (hazard ratio 1.7, P = 0.30) in the same patients. B-cell epitope mapping of the anti-Topo I response has identified four major epitopes which cumulatively show a strong association with the development of PIF in SSc.
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Making sense of rapidly evolving evidence on genetic associations is crucial to making genuine advances in human genomics and the eventual integration of this information in the practice of medicine and public health. Assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of this evidence, and hence the ability to synthesize it, has been limited by inadequate reporting of results. The STrengthening the REporting of Genetic Association studies (STREGA) initiative builds on the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) Statement and provides additions to 12 of the 22 items on the STROBE checklist. The additions concern population stratification, genotyping errors, modeling haplotype variation, Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, replication, selection of participants, rationale for choice of genes and variants, treatment effects in studying quantitative traits, statistical methods, relatedness, reporting of descriptive and outcome data, and the volume of data issues that are important to consider in genetic association studies. The STREGA recommendations do not prescribe or dictate how a genetic association study should be designed but seek to enhance the transparency of its reporting, regardless of choices made during design, conduct, or analysis.