Publications

Global food production depends upon many factors that Earth observing satellites routinely measure about water, energy, weather, and ecosystems. Increasingly sophisticated, publicly-available satellite data products can improve efficiencies in resource management and provide earlier indication of environmental disruption. Satellite remote sensing provides a consistent, long-term record that can be used effectively to detect large-scale features over time, such as a developing drought. Accuracy and capabilities have increased along with the range of Earth observations and derived products that can support food security decisions with actionable information. This paper highlights major capabilities facilitated by satellite observations and physical models that have been developed and validated using remotely-sensed observations. Although we primarily focus on variables relevant to agriculture, we also include a brief description of the growing use of Earth observations in support of aquaculture and fisheries.

Increases in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 result from a combination of forcing from anthropogenic emissions and Earth System feedbacks that reduce or amplify the effects of those emissions on atmospheric concentrations. Despite decades of research carbon-climate feedbacks remain poorly quantified. The impact of these uncertainties on future climate are of increasing concern, especially in the wake of recent climate negotiations. Emissions, long concentrated in the developed world, are now shifting to developing countries, where the emissions inventories have larger uncertainties. The fraction of anthropogenic CO2 remaining in the atmosphere has remained remarkably constant over the last 50 years. Will this change in the future as the climate evolves? Concentrations of CH4, the 2nd most important greenhouse gas, which had apparently stabilized, have recently resumed their increase, but the exact cause for this is unknown. While greenhouse gases affect the global atmosphere, their sources and sinks are remarkably heterogeneous in time and space, and traditional in situ observing systems do not provide the coverage and resolution to attribute the changes to these greenhouse gases to specific sources or sinks. In the past few years, space-based technologies have shown promise for monitoring carbon stocks and fluxes. Advanced versions of these capabilities could transform our understanding and provide the data needed to quantify carbon-climate feedbacks. A new observing system that allows resolving global high resolution fluxes will capture variations on time and space scales that allow the attribution of these fluxes to underlying mechanisms.

The United States faces many existing and emerging mosquito-borne disease threats, such as West Nile virus and Rift Valley fever. An important component of strategic prevention and control plans for these and other mosquito-borne diseases is forecasting the distribution, timing, and abundance of mosquito vector populations. Populations of many medically important mosquito species are closely tied to climate, and historical climate-population associations may be used to predict future population dynamics. Using 2003–2005 U.S. Army Center for Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine mosquito surveillance data, we looked at populations of several known mosquito vectors of West Nile virus, as well as possible mosquito vectors of Rift Valley fever virus, at continental U.S. military installations. We compared population changes with concurrent patterns for a satellite-derived index of climate (normalized difference vegetation index) and observed instances of population changes appearing to be direct responses to climate. These preliminary findings are important first steps in developing an automated, climate-driven, early warning system to flag regions of the United States at elevated risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission.

Background El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. Results Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July – October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 – January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased risk for disease outbreaks: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and most of the southeast Asia Islands for increased dengue fever transmission and increased respiratory illness; Coastal Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Colombia for increased risk of malaria; Bangladesh and coastal India for elevated risk of cholera; East Africa for increased risk of a Rift Valley fever outbreak and elevated malaria; southwest USA for increased risk for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and plague; southern California for increased West Nile virus transmission; and northeast Brazil for increased dengue fever and respiratory illness. Conclusion The current development of El Niño conditions has significant implications for global public health. Extremes in climate events with above normal rainfall and flooding in some regions and extended drought periods in other regions will occur. Forecasting disease is critical for timely and efficient planning of operational control programs. In this paper we describe developing global climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks that will give decision makers additional tools to make rational judgments concerning implementation of disease prevention and mitigation strategies.

The spaceborne advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) sensor data record is approaching 40 years, providing a crucial asset for studying long‐term trends of aerosol properties regionally and globally. However, due to limitations of its channels' information content, aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from AVHRR over land are still largely lacking. In this paper, we describe a new physics‐based algorithm to retrieve aerosol loading over both land and ocean from AVHRR for the first time. The over‐land algorithm is an extension of our Sea‐viewing Wide Field‐of‐view Sensor and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue algorithm, while a simplified version of our Satellite Ocean Aerosol Retrieval algorithm is used over ocean. We compare retrieved AVHRR AOD with that from MODIS on a daily and seasonal basis and find, in general, good agreement between the two. For the satellites with equatorial crossing times within 2 h of solar noon, the spatial coverage of the AVHRR aerosol product is comparable to that of MODIS, except over very bright arid regions (such as the Sahara), where the underlying surface reflectance at 630 nm reaches the critical surface reflectance. Based upon comparisons of the AVHRR AOD against Aerosol Robotic Network data, preliminary results indicate that the expected error confidence interval envelope is around ±(0.03 + 15%) over ocean and ±(0.05 + 25%) over land for this first version of the AVHRR aerosol products. Consequently, these new AVHRR aerosol products can contribute important building blocks for constructing a consistent long‐term data record for climate studies.

Increases in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 result from a combination of forcing from anthropogenic emissions and Earth System feedbacks that reduce or amplify the effects of those emissions on atmospheric concentrations. Despite decades of research carbon-climate feedbacks remain poorly quantified. The impact of these uncertainties on future climate are of increasing concern, especially in the wake of recent climate negotiations. Emissions, long concentrated in the developed world, are now shifting to developing countries, where the emissions inventories have larger uncertainties. The fraction of anthropogenic CO2 remaining in the atmosphere has remained remarkably constant over the last 50 years. Will this change in the future as the climate evolves? Concentrations of CH4, the 2nd most important greenhouse gas, which had apparently stabilized, have recently resumed their increase, but the exact cause for this is unknown. While greenhouse gases affect the global atmosphere, their sources and sinks are remarkably heterogeneous in time and space, and traditional in situ observing systems do not provide the coverage and resolution to attribute the changes to these greenhouse gases to specific sources or sinks. In the past few years, space-based technologies have shown promise for monitoring carbon stocks and fluxes. Advanced versions of these capabilities could transform our understanding and provide the data needed to quantify carbon-climate feedbacks. A new observing system that allows resolving global high resolution fluxes will capture variations on time and space scales that allow the attribution of these fluxes to underlying mechanisms.