Publications

The velocity and impact of climate change on forest appear to be site, environment, and tree species-specific. The primary objective of this research is to assess the changes in productivity of five major temperate tree species ( Pinus densiflora , PD; Larix kaempferi , LK; Pinus koraiensis , PK; Quercus variabilis , QV; and Quercus mongolica , QM) in South Korea using terrestrial inventory and satellite remote sensing data. The area covered by each tree species was further categorized into either lowland forest (LLF) or high mountain forest (HMF) and investigated. We used the repeated Korean national forest inventory (NFI) data to calculate a stand-level annual increment (SAI). We then compared the SAI, a ground-based productivity measure, to MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) net primary productivity as a measure of productivity based on satellite imagery. In addition, the growth index of each increment core, which eliminated the effect of tree age on radial growth, was derived as an indicator of the variation in primary productivity by tree species over the past four decades. Based on our result from NFI plots and increment core data sets, the productivity of PD, QV, and QM in LLF was relatively higher than those in HMF, while LK and PK in HMF were more productive than lowland ones. Our analysis of the increment core data revealed a contrasting pattern of long-term productivity changes between coniferous and oak tree species. While the productivity of oak tree species tended to increase after the 1990s, the productivity in coniferous forests tended to decrease. These differences across forest types and their altitudinal classes are also noticeable from the MODIS product. The results of our study can be used to develop climate-smart forest management strategies to ensure that the forests continue to be resilient and continue to provide a wide range of ecosystem services in the Eastern Asian region.

Russia and Ukraine are countries with large untapped agricultural potentials, both in terms of abandoned agricultural land and low yields. In this study, we apply a global economic agricultural sector model to provide a comprehensive analysis of different scenarios, simulating the utilization of different crop production potentials in Russia and Ukraine and their impacts on a regional and global scale. Our results show that substantial potentials in crop production do exist and that large parts of the additional production would be exported to world markets. Production potentials due to intensification are higher than potentials due to re-cultivation of abandoned land.

We are undertaking analysis and case studies to develop proof of concept for publicly available, comprehensive, global, and independent spatial information systems on land cover and land use, their dynamics and the associated carbon stocks and flows (emissions). Current global monitoring systems provide an opportunity for comparative analysis. But there is also an increasing demand for more efficient and effective systems addressing different user needs and allowing for performance assessment of climate and development policies and their outcomes. Such assessments are increasingly important in the post-Paris world and with regard to the SDGs and other coordinated development efforts. For performance assessments, the baselines and underlying assumptions must be clear and transparent. While some authors ask for uniformed, standardized approaches, we contend that the increasing portfolio of aspects that need to be measured and assessed will have the consequence that different users will have different needs with regard to data type, time and scale resolution, and national circumstances. Getting performance assessment right is important for many aspects of global governance that will be discussed at this conference: Policy transformation will ultimately depend on possibilities to assess the outcomes; justice, fairness and equity will depend on clear and transparent data and rules of the game across multiple levels of government and policy action. A better analysis of discourse can be achieved in the light of unambiguous data. Here we will provide an update on the efforts, discuss them in view of current developments and the Paris climate agreements, and identify what needs to be done over the next 5 years (post-2015) and beyond (post-2020).

Projections of future carbon sinks and stocks are important because they show how the world's ecosystems will respond to elevated CO 2 and changes in climate. Moreover, they are crucial to inform policy decisions around emissions reductions to stay within the global warming levels identified by the Paris Agreement. However, Earth System Models from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show substantial spread in future projections—especially of the terrestrial carbon cycle, leading to a large uncertainty in our knowledge of any remaining carbon budget (RCB). Here we evaluate the global terrestrial carbon cycle projections on a region‐by‐region basis and compare the global models with regional assessments made by the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, Phase 2 activity. Results show that for each region, the CMIP6 multi‐model mean is generally consistent with the regional assessment, but substantial cross‐model spread exists. Nonetheless, all models perform well in some regions and no region is without some well performing models. This gives confidence that the CMIP6 models can be used to look at future changes in carbon stocks on a regional basis with appropriate model assessment and benchmarking. We find that most regions of the world remain cumulative net sources of CO 2 between now and 2100 when considering the balance of fossil‐fuels and natural sinks, even under aggressive mitigation scenarios. This paper identifies strengths and weaknesses for each model in terms of its performance over a particular region including how process representation might impact those results and sets the agenda for applying stricter constraints at regional scales to reduce the uncertainty in global projections.

South Korea and North Korea share the same environment on the Korean peninsula, but they differ in socio-economic conditions, which leads to differences in crop productivity and status of food security. This study aimed at assessing food security in South Korea and North Korea by analyzing food demand and supply from 1991 to 2020. Food security was assessed by determining whether the food supply met the demand in two countries. South Korea achieved food security due to decreasing consumption, diverse nutrition, and stable rice productivity despite a reduction in cultivated paddy areas. In contrast, North Korea has faced food insecurity for 30 years, caused by a growing population, a lack of dietary diversity, and low crop productivity. To overcome food shortage, the North Korean government needs to focus on improving agricultural productivity through comprehensive reforms of agricultural infrastructures, rather than simply expanding low-productive cultivated areas. Although this study was conducted with limited data for North Korea, it sought to collect and utilize open and publicly accessible data. In the long term, both South Korea and North Korea should prepare for the impacts of climate change, considering agriculture-related sectors such as water and energy.

No abstract is provided for this article.

More than 50 percent of the Russian forest inventory was updated more than 25 years ago. The consequence is that most of the existing forest inventory is outdated. Human and environmental forest disturbances continuously affect changes of forest cover and biomass stocks. The magnitude and extent of ongoing environmental pressures (e.g., forest fragmentation and the impact of global climate change) and the loss rates of particular habitat types is unknown. The aim of the paper is to provide an integrated concept for the monitoring and assessment of forest resources, as demonstrated for Central Siberia in the framework of the ZAPAS project and the Siberian Earth System Science Cluster (SIB-ESS-C). Regional and local scale in-situ and multi-agency satellite data were analyzed to generate biomass and forest cover change maps at local scales which were validated with up-to-date forest inventory data. At regional scales a synergy map of land cover and biomass information was developed. Annual PALSAR backscatter data proved to be applicable for local scale forest biomass monitoring and reforestation assessment. The forest resource maps were integrated in a data middleware system to provide Web-based analyses interoperability, data access of multi-scale forest resource maps to local stakeholders, and decision support for regional and local forest management in Central Siberia.