Projections for the period 1995-2029 suggest that the number of men dying from mesothelioma in Western Europe each year will almost double over the next 20 years, from 5000 in 1998 to about 9000 around 2018, and then decline, with a total of about a quarter of a million deaths over the next 35 years. The highest risk will be suffered by men born around 1945-50, of whom about 1 in 150 will die of mesothelioma. Asbestos use in Western Europe remained high until 1980, and substantial quantities are still used in several European countries. These projections are based on the fit of a simple age and birth cohort model to male pleural cancer mortality from 1970 to 1989 for six countries (Britain, France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands and Switzerland) which together account for three-quarters of the population of Western Europe. The model was tested by comparing observed and predicted numbers of deaths for the period 1990-94. The ratio of mesothelioma to recorded pleural cancer mortality has been 1.6:1 in Britain but was assumed to be 1:1 in other countries.

The relation between various measures of physical activity and colorectal cancer risk was considered in a case-control study conducted between 1992 and 1997 in the Swiss canton of Vaud. Cases were 223 patients (142 men, 81 women) below age 75, with colon (n = 119) or rectal (n = 104) cancer; controls were 491 patients (211 men, 280 women) admitted to hospital for acute, non-neoplastic conditions. Compared with the lowest level of physical activity at age 30-39 years, the odds ratios (OR) of colorectal cancer for the highest level were 0.44 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.26-0.73) for occupational and 0.53 (95% CI 0.33-0.86) for leisure-time activity. An inverse association was also observed for physical activity at age 15-19 and 50-59 years. The inverse relation between physical activity and colorectal cancer was observed across strata of sex, age, education, body mass index and alcohol drinking; was somewhat stronger in subjects reporting high total energy, and low vegetable and fibre intakes; and was observed across various colon subsites and rectum. In terms of population attributable risk, increasing physical activity would avoid one-fifth to one-third of incident colorectal cancer cases.

The relationship between breast cancer risk and family history of cancer in first-degree relatives was investigated using data from a multicentric case-control study conducted in Italy between June 1991 and April 1994 on 2,569 women aged less than 75 years, with histologically confirmed incident breast cancer, and 2,588 control women admitted to hospital for acute, non-neoplastic, non-gynaecological conditions. Relative to women with no history, those with a family history of breast cancer had an odds ratio (OR) of 2.4 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.9–3.0], and those with family history of intestinal cancer had an OR of 1.3 (95% CI 1.0–1.7). No significant relations emerged between breast cancer risk and family history of prostate (OR 1.1), ovarian (OR 1.3), cervical or endometrial (OR 1.2) or other cancers, except gallbladder (OR 8.6). The OR for family history of any type of cancer except breast cancer was 1.1. For family history of breast cancer the ORs were similar across strata of age of the proband, being 2.4 below age 45, 2.2 at age 45–59 and 2.7 above age 60, and whether the relative affected was the mother, sister(s) or both, while the risk appeared higher if the age at onset of breast cancer in the relative was lower than 40 years (OR 3.5), rather than higher (OR 2.2). Thus, our results, based on the investigation of all neoplasms in first-degree relatives, confirm that breast cancer risk is increased in women with a family history of breast cancer, while there was no material association with family history of cancer in general, excluding breast cancer. Int. J. Cancer 72:735–738, 1997. © 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The relation between cigarette smoking and breast cancer risk was investigated in a multicentric case-control study conducted in Italy on 2,569 women with incident, histologically confirmed breast cancer and 2,588 control women admitted to hospital for acute, non-neoplastic, non-hormonal, non-gynaecological or smoking-related conditions. Compared with women who had never smoked, current smokers had a multivariate odds ratio (OR) of 0.84 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.7-1.0] and former smokers an OR of 1.14 (5% CI 0.9-1.4), while the OR for ever vs never smokers was 0.93 (95% CI 0.8-1.1). The ORs were 1.02 for < 5 cigarettes per day, 0.99 for 5-14 cigarettes per day, 0.78 for 15-24 cigarettes per day and 1.18 for > or = 25 cigarettes per day. No consistent pattern of risk was observed according to duration of smoking, age at starting and time since starting smoking. Compared with never smokers, former smokers had ORs of 1.45 for < 3 years since stopping smoking, 1.79 for 3-6 years, 1.16 for 7-15 years and 0.74 for > or = 16 years. No heterogeneity emerged across strata of selected covariates. Thus, this study, one of the largest conducted in Europe to date, does not support the presence of any association of practical importance between cigarette smoking and breast cancer risk.

This study, based on a uniquely large dataset, indicates that there are different social class correlates for colon and rectal cancer. Consequently the two sites should not be combined in studies considering lifestyle factors in the aetiology of these neoplasms.

change in workload at the perigee, there was a reduction in out of hours calls at the apogee, when the moon's gravitational pull is at its lowest. Further analysis showed that any apparent effect could be explained by the occurrence of more bank holidays on the full moon days in our study period. Though the reduction in workload at the apogee remained significant (p = 0 032).

The relation between breast feeding and breast cancer was investigated in a multicentric case-control study conducted in Italy on 2,167 parous women with histologically confirmed breast cancer, diagnosed within 1 year, and 2,208 parous control women admitted to hospitals in the same catchment areas of cases for acute, non-neoplastic, non-gynecological non-hormone-related diseases. Compared with women who had never tried to lactate, those who had always failed had a multivariate odds ratio (OR; adjusted for parity, education and several other potential confounding factors) of 0.94, and those who had lactated had an OR of 1.17. The multivariate ORs of women who had breast fed 1, 2 and 3 or more children were, respectively, 1.14, 1.18 and 1.32, compared with women who had never lactated. None of these ORs was statistically significant. Compared with women who had never breast fed, the multivariate ORs were 1.19 for women reporting less than 6 months of breast feeding, 1.15 for 6-11 months, 1.34 for 12-17 months, 1.10 for 18-23 months and 0.86 for 24 months or more. No appreciable difference was evident across strata of age, menopausal status, parity and age at first birth, while there was a hint of interaction with education. Our study therefore excluded any appreciable protective role for lactation in breast cancer risk, with the patterns of lactation in this European population, aside from the protective role of parity on breast carcinogenesis.