We review the debate on the association of financial globalization with inequality. We show that the within-country distributional impact of capital account liberalization is context specific and that different types of flows have different distributional effects. Their overall impact depends on the composition of capital flows, their interaction, and on broader economic and institutional conditions. A comprehensive set of policies – macroeconomic, financial and labor- and product-market specific – is important for facilitating wider sharing of the benefits of financial globalization.

Abstract We ask whether epidemic exposure leads to a shift in financial technology usage and who participates in this shift. We exploit a data set combining Gallup World Polls and Global Findex surveys for some 250,000 individuals in 140 countries, merging them with information on the incidence of epidemics and local 3G Internet infrastructure. Epidemic exposure is associated with an increase in remote‐access (online/mobile) banking and substitution from bank branch based to ATM activity. The temporary nature of the effects we identify is more consistent with a demand channel rather than that of supply with high initial fixed costs. Exploring heterogeneity using a machine learning–driven approach, we find that young, high‐income earners in full‐time employment have the greatest tendency to shift to online/mobile transactions in response to epidemics. Baseline effects are larger for individuals with better ex ante 3G signal coverage, highlighting the role of the digital divide in adaption to new technologies necessitated by adverse external shocks.

Over time, there has been a tendency for political jurisdictions and residents to converge on a single currency. Monopoly over seigniorage is a source of political power and a valuable lifeline when sovereignty is threatened. Moreover a uniform currency, insofar as it is free of counterparty and liquidity risk, facilitates economic activity. But will digital currencies now reverse this trend toward uniformity, given the apparent ease with which they can be created? The information sensitivity of those units, evident in the fact that they trade at varying prices, suggests that they do not yet provide the core functions of money. So-called stable coins are intended to bridge this gap, but whether they can be successfully scaled up and maintain their stability is doubtful. The one unit that can clearly meet these challenges is central bank digital currency. But there would be both costs and benefits of moving in this direction.

Perceptions of government inaction or political interference with trials and regulatory approval may foster doubts about safety, write Barry Eichengreen, Cevat Giray Aksoy and Orkun Saka

The dollar fell by 10 per cent between its March 2020 high and the end of the calendar year, and many banks and forecasters expect it to fall further, by as much as 35 per cent in 2021 Dollar skeptics cite the end of safe-haven flows following the approval of CO VID vaccines, the Federal Reserve's aggressive quantitative easing, America's twin deficits, and the rise of viable alternatives to the greenback This article argues, in contrast, that this dollar pessimism is overdrawn

Abstract Stablecoins and central bank digital currencies are on the horizon in Asia, and in some cases have already arrived. This paper provides new analysis and a critique of the use case for both forms of digital currency. It provides time-varying estimates of devaluation risk for the leading stablecoin, Tether, using data from the futures market. It describes the formidable obstacles to widespread use of central bank digital currencies in cross-border transactions, the context in which their utility is arguably greatest. The bottom line is that significant uncertainties continue to dog the region's digital currency initiatives.

Abstract Since 2003, productivity growth in Turkey has disappointed. We provide a new analysis of the issue, measuring labour productivity at the firm level. Previous accounts distinguish a period of rapid productivity growth before 2007–2008 from one of slower productivity growth thereafter. In contrast, we show that productivity growth in manufacturing was faster after 2007–2008 than before, while productivity in services declined through 2010, after which it stabilised. The slump in service‐sector productivity was compounded by a shift in employment towards activities with relatively low, slowly growing labour productivity such as construction, hospitality and business services. These trends were attributable to policy. Our findings thus upend the conventional picture of successful policy reform prior to the Global Financial Crisis followed by a period of regression.

There is strong association between chronic kidney disease (CKD) and increased prevalence of hypertension, risk of end-organ damage, and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Non-dipping, as determined by ambulatory blood pressure (BP) monitoring (ABPM), is frequent in CKD and has also been consistently associated with increased CVD risk. The reported prevalence of non-dipping in CKD is highly variable, probably due to relatively small sample sizes, reliance only on a single, low-reproducibility, 24-h ABPM evaluation per participant, and definition of daytime and nighttime periods by arbitrary fixed clock-hour spans. Accordingly, we assessed the circadian BP pattern of patients with and without CKD by 48-h ABPM to increase reproducibility of the results. This cross-sectional study involved 10 271 hypertensive patients (5506 men/4765 women), 58.0 ± 14.2 (mean ± SD) yrs of age, enrolled in the Hygia Project. Among the participants, 3227 (1925 men/1302 women) had CKD. At the time of recruitment, 568/2234 patients with/without CKD were untreated for hypertension. Patients with than without CKD were more likely to be men and of older age, have diagnoses of obstructive sleep apnea, metabolic syndrome, diabetes, and/or obesity, plus have higher glucose, creatinine, uric acid, and triglyceride, but lower cholesterol, concentrations. In patients with CKD, ambulatory systolic BP (SBP) was significantly elevated (p < .001), mainly during the hours of nighttime sleep, independent of presence/absence of BP-lowering treatment. In patients without CKD, ambulatory diastolic BP (DBP), however, was significantly higher (p < .001), mainly during the daytime. Differing trends for SBP and DBP between groups resulted in large differences in ambulatory pulse pressure (PP), it being significantly greater (p < .001) for the entire 24 h in patients with CKD. Prevalence of non-dipping was significantly higher in patients with than without CKD (60.6% vs. 43.2%; p < .001). The largest difference between groups was in the prevalence of the riser BP pattern, i.e., asleep SBP mean > awake SBP mean (17.6% vs. 7.1% in patients with and without CKD, respectively; p < .001). The riser BP pattern significantly and progressively increased from 8.1% among those with stage 1 CKD to a very high 34.9% of those with stage 5 CKD. Elevated asleep SBP mean was the major basis for the diagnosis of hypertension and/or inadequate BP control among patients with CKD; thus, among the uncontrolled hypertensive patients with CKD, 90.7% had nocturnal hypertension. Our findings document significantly elevated prevalence of a blunted nocturnal BP decline in hypertensive patients with CKD. Most important, prevalence of the riser BP pattern, associated with highest CVD risk among all possible BP patterns, was 2.5-fold more prevalent in CKD, and up to 5-fold more prevalent in end-stage renal disease. Patients with CKD also presented significantly elevated ambulatory PP, reflecting increased arterial stiffness and enhanced CVD risk. Collectively, these findings indicate that CKD should be included among the clinical conditions for which ABPM is mandatory for proper diagnosis and CVD risk assessment, as well as a means to establish the best therapeutic scheme to increase CVD event-free survival.

Crespo, J. J.1; Dominguez-Sardiña, M.1; Rios, M. T.1; Moya, A.2; Gomara, S. M.2; Meijide, L.2; Mojon, A.3; Ayala, D. E.3; Hermida, R. C.3 On Behalf of Hygia Project Investigators Author Information

A total of 18 diurnally active subjects with uncomplicated, mild to moderate, essential hypertension were studied to compare the efficacy of the morning versus evening administration of an oral olmesartan medication. After a two-week, wash-out/placebo run-in period, subjects with clinic diastolic blood pressure (DBP) &gt; or = 90 mm Hg and &lt;110 mm Hg began 12 weeks of 20 mg olmesartan medoxomil tablet therapy at 08:00 h daily. Four of the 18 subjects required dose escalation to 40 mg at eight weeks because of clinic DBP &gt; or = 90 mm Hg. After the 12-week period of once-a-day 08:00 h treatment, subjects were immediately switched to an evening (20:00 h) drug-ingestion schedule for another 12-week period without change in dose. Subjects underwent 24 h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) before the initiation of morning treatment and at the end of both the 12-week morning and evening treatment arms. Dosing time did not exert statistically significant differences on the efficacy of olmesartan: the reduction from baseline in the 24 h mean systolic (SBP) and DBP was, respectively, 18.8 and 14.6 mm Hg with morning dosing and 16.1 and 13.2 mm Hg with evening dosing (p&gt;0.152 between groups). The amplitude of the BP 24 h pattern did not vary with dosing time, indicating full 24 h BP reduction no matter the clock hour of treatment. Although, the BP-lowering effect was somewhat better with morning dosing, the results of this study suggest that the studied olmesartan medoxomil preparation efficiently reduces BP when ingested in the morning (08:00 h) or evening (20:00 h) in equivalent manner, based on statistical testing, throughout the 24 h.